Smoke and Mirrors
PSU won the Big Ten, PSU was 11-3. Pre-season PSU ranked 6th in the country yet I saw Michigan wipe the floor with them.
This one has been bothering me for a while. Who is PSU? They can't be a top 10 team can they? I understand that stats don't tell the story to a game in every case, but I can typically look at stats and I know who won.
Looking back at 2016 PSU game results
The weird part is that in looking at the top 6 games played by PSU in almost every game on this list:
I don't believe in luck, but sometimes a team has a string of close games and miraculously wins them all. Its coin flip stuff. Typically the next season they lose the coin flips. I'm a big time skeptic about PSU as a top 10 team. I think they surprise some people by losing 4 games rather than the 11-2 range that is suggested by a top 6 ranking. Vegas has their regular season O/U @ 9. That seems about right.
PSU as a pre-season top 10 team I rate as an emphatic SELL.
Vs. PITT: PSU had
· 26 fewer yards,
· 1 more 1st Downs,
· 2 more TO's
· 2 for10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 2.4 Yds /carry
· Gave up 6.1 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 3
Analysis: Ok PSU plays a mediocre team mediocre fashion. They lose to an 8-5 Pitt team that lost to NW in the bowl game. Ok I know who PSU is. Not a top 20 team but competitive.
Vs. Michigan: PSU had
· 324 fewer yards
· 13 fewer 1st Downs
· 2 more TO's
· 2 for12 on 3rd down
· Averaged 2.5 Yds /carry
· Gave up 6.7 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 39
Analysis: I knew this was a blowout without even looking at the score line. Michigan dominated the stats won big. At this point I thought I knew who PSU was. poor to mediocre.
Vs. Minnesota: PSU had
· 2 more yds of offense
· 12 fewer 1st downs
· 1 fewer TO
· 4-15 on 3rd down
· Averaged 4.9 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.8 yds/carry
· Result: PSU WON by 3
Analysis: This looks like a relatively and even game and it was. Minnesota was a good solid 9-4 team losing in OT to PSU in Happy Valley. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material
Vs. Ohio St.: PSU had
· 137 fewer yds,
· 6 fewer 1st downs,
· 1 more TO
· 2 for 13 on 3rd down
· Averaged 3.3 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.2 yds/carry
· Result: PSU Won by 3
Analysis: Huh?? What? This stat line looks like an easy OSU win even playing in Happy Valley. From these stats, PSU looks ineffective against a good OSU team. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material on the stat line but they win by 3 against the Playoff bound Buckeyes. PSU does everything wrong and wins. Head Scratcher.
Vs. Wisconsin: PSU had
· 20 more yds of offense,
· 1 fewer 1st downs
· 2 more TO's
· 3-10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 1.8 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.9 yds/carry
· Result: PSU Won by 7
Analysis: Huh?? What? This stat line looks like a Wisconsin win on a neutral field. From these stats, PSU looks very ineffective at the run and stopping the run. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material on the stat line but they win by 7 against the Cotton Bowl bound Badgers. Head Scratcher.
Vs. USC: PSU had
· 110 fewer yds of offense,
· 10 fewer 1st downs
· 2 more TO's
· 4-10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 6.4 Yds /carry
· Gave up 3.6 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 3
Analysis: Hmmm This stat line looks like an easy USC win in the Rose Bowl. From these stats, PSU looks very effective at the run and merely decent at run defense. How are you even close gaining 110 fewer yards, 10 fewer 1st downs and turning the ball over 2 more times than your competitor and you were mediocre on 3rd down? PSU over-performed on the scoreboard based upon these stats.
PSU won the Big Ten, PSU was 11-3. Pre-season PSU ranked 6th in the country yet I saw Michigan wipe the floor with them.
This one has been bothering me for a while. Who is PSU? They can't be a top 10 team can they? I understand that stats don't tell the story to a game in every case, but I can typically look at stats and I know who won.
Looking back at 2016 PSU game results
The weird part is that in looking at the top 6 games played by PSU in almost every game on this list:
- PSU lost the turnover battle
- PSU was out gained in total yds
- PSU had fewer 1st downs
- PSU had a terrible 3rd down conversion
- In all but two games they could not run the ball at all.
- Yet....they beat OSU, Wisconsin, and lost narrowly to USC and Pitt
- HOW???
I don't believe in luck, but sometimes a team has a string of close games and miraculously wins them all. Its coin flip stuff. Typically the next season they lose the coin flips. I'm a big time skeptic about PSU as a top 10 team. I think they surprise some people by losing 4 games rather than the 11-2 range that is suggested by a top 6 ranking. Vegas has their regular season O/U @ 9. That seems about right.
PSU as a pre-season top 10 team I rate as an emphatic SELL.
Vs. PITT: PSU had
· 26 fewer yards,
· 1 more 1st Downs,
· 2 more TO's
· 2 for10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 2.4 Yds /carry
· Gave up 6.1 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 3
Analysis: Ok PSU plays a mediocre team mediocre fashion. They lose to an 8-5 Pitt team that lost to NW in the bowl game. Ok I know who PSU is. Not a top 20 team but competitive.
Vs. Michigan: PSU had
· 324 fewer yards
· 13 fewer 1st Downs
· 2 more TO's
· 2 for12 on 3rd down
· Averaged 2.5 Yds /carry
· Gave up 6.7 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 39
Analysis: I knew this was a blowout without even looking at the score line. Michigan dominated the stats won big. At this point I thought I knew who PSU was. poor to mediocre.
Vs. Minnesota: PSU had
· 2 more yds of offense
· 12 fewer 1st downs
· 1 fewer TO
· 4-15 on 3rd down
· Averaged 4.9 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.8 yds/carry
· Result: PSU WON by 3
Analysis: This looks like a relatively and even game and it was. Minnesota was a good solid 9-4 team losing in OT to PSU in Happy Valley. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material
Vs. Ohio St.: PSU had
· 137 fewer yds,
· 6 fewer 1st downs,
· 1 more TO
· 2 for 13 on 3rd down
· Averaged 3.3 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.2 yds/carry
· Result: PSU Won by 3
Analysis: Huh?? What? This stat line looks like an easy OSU win even playing in Happy Valley. From these stats, PSU looks ineffective against a good OSU team. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material on the stat line but they win by 3 against the Playoff bound Buckeyes. PSU does everything wrong and wins. Head Scratcher.
Vs. Wisconsin: PSU had
· 20 more yds of offense,
· 1 fewer 1st downs
· 2 more TO's
· 3-10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 1.8 Yds /carry
· Gave up 4.9 yds/carry
· Result: PSU Won by 7
Analysis: Huh?? What? This stat line looks like a Wisconsin win on a neutral field. From these stats, PSU looks very ineffective at the run and stopping the run. Again PSU looks like a decent team but not top 20 material on the stat line but they win by 7 against the Cotton Bowl bound Badgers. Head Scratcher.
Vs. USC: PSU had
· 110 fewer yds of offense,
· 10 fewer 1st downs
· 2 more TO's
· 4-10 on 3rd down
· Averaged 6.4 Yds /carry
· Gave up 3.6 yds/carry
· Result: PSU LOST by 3
Analysis: Hmmm This stat line looks like an easy USC win in the Rose Bowl. From these stats, PSU looks very effective at the run and merely decent at run defense. How are you even close gaining 110 fewer yards, 10 fewer 1st downs and turning the ball over 2 more times than your competitor and you were mediocre on 3rd down? PSU over-performed on the scoreboard based upon these stats.
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