To start, let me say that I have no idea of whether there will be any attrition from this year's team aside from Charles Matthews who has graduated and will (rightfully in my view) turn pro. Absolutely no idea. This is NOT a forerunner of doom and gloom, or an insider hint of attrition to come, just some thoughts in the event of departures, since the possibility of same has been a topic of conversation here and elsewhere. Iggy Brazdeikis and Jordan Poole will certainly test the NBA waters, and may or may not return, depending upon the feedback they receive and their personal situations. Others may or may not decide that the route to playing time is more open elsewhere. It is possible that all will be back. It is possible that some will leave. No one knows at this point.
And I'm not suggesting that we could throw 5 guys out there with a skill level equivalent to Balas, Borton, Fox, sane1 and myself and still win. no matter how good a coach we have in JB. Talent is extremely important, and IF we lose key guys off of the roster, we're going to have to have guys who can and will play at a high level to replace them.
Nonetheless, what I do know is that we're going to be very good next year, building off of a base of Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers (guys in this year's rotation about whom there has been zero speculation regarding departures), plus those who return. Whether we're a pre-season top 5 team will likely depend on who surrounds those 3, and in particular, whether Iggy returns (and secondarily, whether JP returns). Regardless though, the history of the program under Beilein strongly suggests that we're going to be a force regardless of what attrition occurs in the off season.
After John Beilein's first year, Epke Udoh transferred. Udoh was touted by some as a potential pro (a viewpoint which turned out to be accurate), and his departure, leaving virtually no size in the program in its wake, was thought to spell doom for the program. The next year, we won 11 more games than we had the year before, and made the NCAA tournament for the first time for 10 years.
Two years later, Manny Harris left early (to not be drafted by the NBA). People criticized Manny for leaving, and JB for not being able to get along with star players. We also lost Deshawn Sims to graduation. The next year, without those players (the 2 best on a team which was under .500), we won 6 more games, and returned to the tournament.
This tournament return prompted the early departure of Darius Morris, who was drafted in the second round. We also lost some players, including most notably, Evan Smotrycz, to transfer. Again, folks complained about Darius' decision (he lasted in the NBA for 4 years), and about Beilein's ability to relate to stars. And the next year, we won a share of the Big Ten Championship.
Two years later, after 2012-13, and our trip to the NCAA finals, we lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. Trey, everyone understood, but Tim was the source of much criticism from people who thought he'd never play in the NBA. $80 million later, Tim is still playing in the NBA. The team--we won the Big Ten by 3 games the nest year, and reached the Elite Eight.
After that year, we lost all of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson, III, and Mitch McGary to early entry. Glenn was only a second round pick, and the subject of blowback from those who thought he wouldn't last in the NBA (he's still there). Mitch left after failing a drug test, and being suspended for an entire year. Finally, and only in this one instance, we fell of notably the year after. Even then, a significant part of what happened was season ending injuries to our two stars, one of whom was a first round NBA draft choice, and the other (injured, limited and hobbled 5 games in, out for the year less than halfway through the Big Ten season) a guy who has played in the NBA.
Then, after the 2016-17 season, one in which we reached the Sweet Sixteen, D.J. Wilson left early, to a chorus of those who thought he'd be spending his time in Europe or the G League. D.J. was the #17 pick in.the draft, and is currently a rotation player for a championship contender. In the meantime, we went to the NCAA finals the next year in his absence, and the graduation absence of multi-year starters Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin.
Which, of course, brought Mo Wagner's early departure, along with, via graduation, those of MAAR and Duncan Robinson. And again, shrugging off those departures, we won 30 games this year, reached the Sweet Sixteen, and were in the top 10 all season, a better year (until the tournament) than the one before.
The verdict--in only one season did the attrition bemoaned by our fans result in a drop-off in the program's success. To the contrary, we've gotten better every other time. The reason: John Beilein has not been part of the attrition. And as with other great programs (a category in which we now firmly belong), that's the important thing. MSU lost 2 lottery picks and Josh Langford to injury, and is still playing. After 2013-14, they lost Harris (early), Payne and Appling, and went to the Final Four the next year. Texas Tech lost 4 starters from last year's Elite Eight team, and is still playing. Purdue lost 4 starters from last year's Sweet Sixteen team, and did better this year. None relied on one and done freshmen. All patched holes with quality recruits (which we have) and players developing within the program (we have those too), moved on, and prospered. We will too.
For selfish reasons, I hope guys like Iggy and JP come back. They very well may--neither is, at least at this time, a likely first rounder, or maybe not even a pick at all, though one need only look at Maryland's Kevin Huerter last year to find a guy who rocketed up draft boards via his workouts and performance at the combine. If one, or both, do not, I'll wish them the best of luck, rather than ripping their decision(s), and look forward to how we'll change and evolve with some new guys in the lineup.
And I'm not suggesting that we could throw 5 guys out there with a skill level equivalent to Balas, Borton, Fox, sane1 and myself and still win. no matter how good a coach we have in JB. Talent is extremely important, and IF we lose key guys off of the roster, we're going to have to have guys who can and will play at a high level to replace them.
Nonetheless, what I do know is that we're going to be very good next year, building off of a base of Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers (guys in this year's rotation about whom there has been zero speculation regarding departures), plus those who return. Whether we're a pre-season top 5 team will likely depend on who surrounds those 3, and in particular, whether Iggy returns (and secondarily, whether JP returns). Regardless though, the history of the program under Beilein strongly suggests that we're going to be a force regardless of what attrition occurs in the off season.
After John Beilein's first year, Epke Udoh transferred. Udoh was touted by some as a potential pro (a viewpoint which turned out to be accurate), and his departure, leaving virtually no size in the program in its wake, was thought to spell doom for the program. The next year, we won 11 more games than we had the year before, and made the NCAA tournament for the first time for 10 years.
Two years later, Manny Harris left early (to not be drafted by the NBA). People criticized Manny for leaving, and JB for not being able to get along with star players. We also lost Deshawn Sims to graduation. The next year, without those players (the 2 best on a team which was under .500), we won 6 more games, and returned to the tournament.
This tournament return prompted the early departure of Darius Morris, who was drafted in the second round. We also lost some players, including most notably, Evan Smotrycz, to transfer. Again, folks complained about Darius' decision (he lasted in the NBA for 4 years), and about Beilein's ability to relate to stars. And the next year, we won a share of the Big Ten Championship.
Two years later, after 2012-13, and our trip to the NCAA finals, we lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. Trey, everyone understood, but Tim was the source of much criticism from people who thought he'd never play in the NBA. $80 million later, Tim is still playing in the NBA. The team--we won the Big Ten by 3 games the nest year, and reached the Elite Eight.
After that year, we lost all of Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson, III, and Mitch McGary to early entry. Glenn was only a second round pick, and the subject of blowback from those who thought he wouldn't last in the NBA (he's still there). Mitch left after failing a drug test, and being suspended for an entire year. Finally, and only in this one instance, we fell of notably the year after. Even then, a significant part of what happened was season ending injuries to our two stars, one of whom was a first round NBA draft choice, and the other (injured, limited and hobbled 5 games in, out for the year less than halfway through the Big Ten season) a guy who has played in the NBA.
Then, after the 2016-17 season, one in which we reached the Sweet Sixteen, D.J. Wilson left early, to a chorus of those who thought he'd be spending his time in Europe or the G League. D.J. was the #17 pick in.the draft, and is currently a rotation player for a championship contender. In the meantime, we went to the NCAA finals the next year in his absence, and the graduation absence of multi-year starters Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin.
Which, of course, brought Mo Wagner's early departure, along with, via graduation, those of MAAR and Duncan Robinson. And again, shrugging off those departures, we won 30 games this year, reached the Sweet Sixteen, and were in the top 10 all season, a better year (until the tournament) than the one before.
The verdict--in only one season did the attrition bemoaned by our fans result in a drop-off in the program's success. To the contrary, we've gotten better every other time. The reason: John Beilein has not been part of the attrition. And as with other great programs (a category in which we now firmly belong), that's the important thing. MSU lost 2 lottery picks and Josh Langford to injury, and is still playing. After 2013-14, they lost Harris (early), Payne and Appling, and went to the Final Four the next year. Texas Tech lost 4 starters from last year's Elite Eight team, and is still playing. Purdue lost 4 starters from last year's Sweet Sixteen team, and did better this year. None relied on one and done freshmen. All patched holes with quality recruits (which we have) and players developing within the program (we have those too), moved on, and prospered. We will too.
For selfish reasons, I hope guys like Iggy and JP come back. They very well may--neither is, at least at this time, a likely first rounder, or maybe not even a pick at all, though one need only look at Maryland's Kevin Huerter last year to find a guy who rocketed up draft boards via his workouts and performance at the combine. If one, or both, do not, I'll wish them the best of luck, rather than ripping their decision(s), and look forward to how we'll change and evolve with some new guys in the lineup.
