At this point it is merely speculation on the schedule, but a look around the nation tells me they aren't going to blitz Michigan with a slew of makeup games. Villanova sits at 8-2 in the Big East with Creighton behind them at 12-4. Nova has been back for a month, but they haven't played more than the normal twice per week. They will play 16 conference games at their pace. Baylor has said last week they won't be trying to play all of the games they missed. I have a tough time seeing a conference such as the Big Ten that has a reputation for academics trying to have student athletes play so many games in a short period of time. You are basically asking them to forego the academic side of things for over a full month as you know they will have a different focus once they are bubbled in Indianapolis for the conference tournament and subsequent NCAA.
Let's just assume the only focus for Michigan's schedule is to get the game in with Illinois. The Illini have played 13 conference games and would need to play three in one week to get the Michigan game played based on their projected schedule. I could see the following happening for Michigan.....
- Move the Iowa game one week ahead to when both schools are open midweek
- Move the Michigan @ MSU game up to the midweek from their current CBS slot on 3/7. My guess is the Big Ten can dictate how they want the schedule to move around as long as existing tv deals remain the same and I could see the conference (and CBS) trying to find a more favorable matchup for that final Sunday. Could even do a Tue/Thur home/away with the two Michigan schools, but my guess is Tom Izzo will not want that to happen despite his anyone/anywhere BS.
- Play Illinois @ Michigan on Sunday, 3/7 on CBS. This would entail having to scrap the Illinois/OSU game on 3/6 scheduled on one of the ESPN channels (and it turn those schools only playing 19 games each). Perhaps move the MSU @ OSU game scheduled for 2/25 to 3/6-3/7 as OSU has no games after 2/28 at this time. Anyway, an Illinois/Michigan game on the final day of the regular season could allow the Big Ten to have some clarity at that point in naming a regular season champion. Perhaps Michigan sits at 13-2 with Illinois at 14-4 and the conference considers it to be a game where Michigan gets the title outright with a win or the title is shared (along with possibly OSU as well) if the Illini get the win. At the very least I think playing this game at the very end of the year allows the conference to craft decisions on who wins a title a bit easier.
For the sake of argument, let's just consider Michigan plays six more regular season games (those scheduled along with Illinois). A bit more difficult to forecast than a normal season, but I see the following for the NCAA as we head to the BTT....
- 6-0 or 5-1 and Michigan is a lock for a #1 seed and can lose on Friday of the BTT without any concern to their seed...
- 4-2 allows for Michigan to likely still have a #1 seed regardless of who they lose to, but could need to play on Sat or Sun of BTT to retain that position
- 3-3 and Michigan is likely on the two line and just slightly behind OSU/Illinois on the two line and needs to beat one of those two in Indy to jump them on the S-curve
A 3-3 finish would be doubly disastrous as it would probably inch Michigan out of a Big Ten regular season title and then place them in either the Gonzaga/Baylor regions based on the rules of keeping them away from OSU/Illinois who would likely be 1/2 seeds in the other regions. Michigan may have fallen down the stretch in 2013, but there were no teams comparable to Gonzaga/Baylor that season. Those two can be beaten, but they are probably somewhere between 2015 Duke/Wisconsin and 2015 Kentucky in terms of caliber (which is ironic as Wisconsin beat Kentucky to end their perfect season). I would much rather try and navigate Houston or Villanova or Alabama in a regional final.
Let's just assume the only focus for Michigan's schedule is to get the game in with Illinois. The Illini have played 13 conference games and would need to play three in one week to get the Michigan game played based on their projected schedule. I could see the following happening for Michigan.....
- Move the Iowa game one week ahead to when both schools are open midweek
- Move the Michigan @ MSU game up to the midweek from their current CBS slot on 3/7. My guess is the Big Ten can dictate how they want the schedule to move around as long as existing tv deals remain the same and I could see the conference (and CBS) trying to find a more favorable matchup for that final Sunday. Could even do a Tue/Thur home/away with the two Michigan schools, but my guess is Tom Izzo will not want that to happen despite his anyone/anywhere BS.
- Play Illinois @ Michigan on Sunday, 3/7 on CBS. This would entail having to scrap the Illinois/OSU game on 3/6 scheduled on one of the ESPN channels (and it turn those schools only playing 19 games each). Perhaps move the MSU @ OSU game scheduled for 2/25 to 3/6-3/7 as OSU has no games after 2/28 at this time. Anyway, an Illinois/Michigan game on the final day of the regular season could allow the Big Ten to have some clarity at that point in naming a regular season champion. Perhaps Michigan sits at 13-2 with Illinois at 14-4 and the conference considers it to be a game where Michigan gets the title outright with a win or the title is shared (along with possibly OSU as well) if the Illini get the win. At the very least I think playing this game at the very end of the year allows the conference to craft decisions on who wins a title a bit easier.
For the sake of argument, let's just consider Michigan plays six more regular season games (those scheduled along with Illinois). A bit more difficult to forecast than a normal season, but I see the following for the NCAA as we head to the BTT....
- 6-0 or 5-1 and Michigan is a lock for a #1 seed and can lose on Friday of the BTT without any concern to their seed...
- 4-2 allows for Michigan to likely still have a #1 seed regardless of who they lose to, but could need to play on Sat or Sun of BTT to retain that position
- 3-3 and Michigan is likely on the two line and just slightly behind OSU/Illinois on the two line and needs to beat one of those two in Indy to jump them on the S-curve
A 3-3 finish would be doubly disastrous as it would probably inch Michigan out of a Big Ten regular season title and then place them in either the Gonzaga/Baylor regions based on the rules of keeping them away from OSU/Illinois who would likely be 1/2 seeds in the other regions. Michigan may have fallen down the stretch in 2013, but there were no teams comparable to Gonzaga/Baylor that season. Those two can be beaten, but they are probably somewhere between 2015 Duke/Wisconsin and 2015 Kentucky in terms of caliber (which is ironic as Wisconsin beat Kentucky to end their perfect season). I would much rather try and navigate Houston or Villanova or Alabama in a regional final.
