At this point there are enough data points to show the Big Ten has broken itself into four separate tiers. This season is starting to shape up very similar to the 2013 year with different names in different tiers. The only difference being I don't think the top tier can realistically win the NCAA title with the presence of Gonzaga and Baylor.
Tier 1 - Big Ten Title Contenders
The four teams in this tier are to no surprise Michigan, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin (although Badgers becoming a bit shaky). All of the first three produced a blitzing run for their midweek game against a (team not named Nebraska). Michigan went on 37-8 run. Iowa had a 35-7 run. Illinois went 54-13 to finish the game. I anticipate all four of these schools to be a top 4 seed in the NCAA and realistically nobody else can win the Big Ten outside of this group. Unfortunately, we saw what the Zags did to Iowa and we saw how Baylor ran away from Illinois at the end. It's not impossible for these teams to win the whole thing, but it will be very difficult. Nonetheless, all four should feel very good about their chances at getting to the F4.
Tier 2 - NCAA Tournament Teams
Those schools being Rutgers, Minnesota, Ohio State and (yes) Michigan State. All four of these schools went through non con unscathed and picked up a solid win along the way with Rutgers (Syracuse....although Cuse probably a bubble out at the moment), Minnesota (St Louis), Ohio State (UCLA), Michigan State (Duke). All of these schools are absolute locks for the NCAA at 9-11 in conference and a near certain lock at even 8-12 (assuming full schedule plays out). Thus, it will take a considerable fall for any of these squads to miss the NCAA. Nonetheless, all of the schools in this group are a clear cut below Tier 1 where they struggle to compete on the road. I know Michigan State took their lumps the other week, but I expect them to rebound into a 7-9 seed caliber team. They are not as bad as what they showed against Minnesota (just like Rutgers isn't as bad as what they showed at MSU). I think the Wisconsin/Nebraska games are more indicative of MSU where they are competitive at home against a top team in a loss, while still being able to handle Nebraska on the road. Ohio State needs CJ Walker back as soon as possible. His return is uncertain, but if he misses a month then the Bucks will straddle the cut line come March.
Tier 3 - Bubble Teams
The expected number of NCAA invites for the Big Ten falls between 8-9 teams with it being close to the latter of those two numbers. We could also see as few as 7 or as many as 10 if things break significantly in one direction, i.e. a slew of 10-10 teams or a slew of 8-12 teams. The schools in this group are Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern and Penn State. Maryland/Purdue/Northwestern all need to be 9-11 or better in conference for the NCAA based on their non con performances and that is looking doubtful for all three. Penn State has a nice non con resume, but is already 0-3 to start Big Ten play. Indiana is probably the most likely team in this group to get a NCAA bid and I think they will when the season is completed. The Hoosiers have some nice meat on their resume already, but are a complete enigma at times (losing at home to NW, probably should have won last night at Wisconsin). Indiana will naturally keep it interesting until the end on being near the cut line. The other four in this group will snag wins here and there and finish close to 7-13 in conference.
Tier 4 - Nebraska
Nebraska will probably end up with 2-3 conference wins with all of them happening in Lincoln.
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The NCAA came out earlier this week in noting all of the games being played in or near Indianapolis, which is a great idea. They also noted how Selection Sunday will take place on March 14 with the F4 happening on April 4.
I'm not liking what I am hearing thus far with the schedule. Perhaps, the NCAA has alternative ideas in their pocket, but I would prefer to see the F4 delayed either two or four weeks. Thus far the college basketball season has been relatively successful in games being played and rescheduled or cancelled when necessary. However, I don't see why the NCAA needs to hastily have the tournament in March when it is clear nearly every conference will likely have an imbalance in the number of games teams play within their league. We see how Penn State will miss four games. Villanova will miss a few. South Carolina has played five games so far. Depaul with a grand total of three. There isn't enough time to properly reschedule these postponements without the NCAA moving back.
The NBA Playoffs have been moved to a May 22 start. The Tournament won't be interfering with TNT/TBS on those matchups. The Masters on CBS is a constraint and thus it is not ideal to place either the opening weekend games nor Final Four the same weekend. However, you can easily handle the S16 games in the same weekend with the E8 games tipping off at 7:30/9:30 after Sat/Sun coverage of golf is completed (or move Selection Sunday after The Masters if the postponements continue to happen). As for the student athletes, it is clear based on the rescheduling of football games in December that there should be no concerns with this infringing upon graduation if they are playing in late April. I just don't see why it is necessary to get this tournament started at the normal time when it is clear most of the teams can get in close to 25 games if allotted a few extra weeks. And if a school is having success in getting all of their games completed, then start spacing out their final games starting in the middle of February so they aren't sitting around for two weeks doing nothing.
Regardless of the schedule moving or not, I would hope the Big Ten takes the lead in not moving forward with the conference tournament. The conference tournamnet is great to visit as a fan, but really provides little excitement overall as a hoops junkie. As it is, I am additionally concerned of the NCAAs stance this week in noting the defined date of Selection Sunday along with F4, but stating how the preliminary games will be determined at a later date. It appears as though they need time for testing every player and thus the first four games may be delayed a day or two. If that is the case, then move Selection Sunday a few days up or just eliminate the first four games and keep the field to 64. However, DO NOT move the opening weekend games for Thur-Sun to Sat-Tue. That will be completely moronic and I glean this may be entirely possible with them. The opening weekend is heaven for any sports fan. I have sadly spent many a cold winter day watching games throughout the country nonstop from noon to midnight, but I rarely pay attention to the first four games for the NCAA. To add further perspective if you were to give me the option of no first four games in 2016 (i.e. Michigan misses the field) with the round of 64 tipping off on Thursday or Michigan making a field of 68 with the field of 64 starting on Saturday, I would take the former of those two options. Please NCAA do not move the round of 64 from Thursday!
Tier 1 - Big Ten Title Contenders
The four teams in this tier are to no surprise Michigan, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin (although Badgers becoming a bit shaky). All of the first three produced a blitzing run for their midweek game against a (team not named Nebraska). Michigan went on 37-8 run. Iowa had a 35-7 run. Illinois went 54-13 to finish the game. I anticipate all four of these schools to be a top 4 seed in the NCAA and realistically nobody else can win the Big Ten outside of this group. Unfortunately, we saw what the Zags did to Iowa and we saw how Baylor ran away from Illinois at the end. It's not impossible for these teams to win the whole thing, but it will be very difficult. Nonetheless, all four should feel very good about their chances at getting to the F4.
Tier 2 - NCAA Tournament Teams
Those schools being Rutgers, Minnesota, Ohio State and (yes) Michigan State. All four of these schools went through non con unscathed and picked up a solid win along the way with Rutgers (Syracuse....although Cuse probably a bubble out at the moment), Minnesota (St Louis), Ohio State (UCLA), Michigan State (Duke). All of these schools are absolute locks for the NCAA at 9-11 in conference and a near certain lock at even 8-12 (assuming full schedule plays out). Thus, it will take a considerable fall for any of these squads to miss the NCAA. Nonetheless, all of the schools in this group are a clear cut below Tier 1 where they struggle to compete on the road. I know Michigan State took their lumps the other week, but I expect them to rebound into a 7-9 seed caliber team. They are not as bad as what they showed against Minnesota (just like Rutgers isn't as bad as what they showed at MSU). I think the Wisconsin/Nebraska games are more indicative of MSU where they are competitive at home against a top team in a loss, while still being able to handle Nebraska on the road. Ohio State needs CJ Walker back as soon as possible. His return is uncertain, but if he misses a month then the Bucks will straddle the cut line come March.
Tier 3 - Bubble Teams
The expected number of NCAA invites for the Big Ten falls between 8-9 teams with it being close to the latter of those two numbers. We could also see as few as 7 or as many as 10 if things break significantly in one direction, i.e. a slew of 10-10 teams or a slew of 8-12 teams. The schools in this group are Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern and Penn State. Maryland/Purdue/Northwestern all need to be 9-11 or better in conference for the NCAA based on their non con performances and that is looking doubtful for all three. Penn State has a nice non con resume, but is already 0-3 to start Big Ten play. Indiana is probably the most likely team in this group to get a NCAA bid and I think they will when the season is completed. The Hoosiers have some nice meat on their resume already, but are a complete enigma at times (losing at home to NW, probably should have won last night at Wisconsin). Indiana will naturally keep it interesting until the end on being near the cut line. The other four in this group will snag wins here and there and finish close to 7-13 in conference.
Tier 4 - Nebraska
Nebraska will probably end up with 2-3 conference wins with all of them happening in Lincoln.
................
The NCAA came out earlier this week in noting all of the games being played in or near Indianapolis, which is a great idea. They also noted how Selection Sunday will take place on March 14 with the F4 happening on April 4.
I'm not liking what I am hearing thus far with the schedule. Perhaps, the NCAA has alternative ideas in their pocket, but I would prefer to see the F4 delayed either two or four weeks. Thus far the college basketball season has been relatively successful in games being played and rescheduled or cancelled when necessary. However, I don't see why the NCAA needs to hastily have the tournament in March when it is clear nearly every conference will likely have an imbalance in the number of games teams play within their league. We see how Penn State will miss four games. Villanova will miss a few. South Carolina has played five games so far. Depaul with a grand total of three. There isn't enough time to properly reschedule these postponements without the NCAA moving back.
The NBA Playoffs have been moved to a May 22 start. The Tournament won't be interfering with TNT/TBS on those matchups. The Masters on CBS is a constraint and thus it is not ideal to place either the opening weekend games nor Final Four the same weekend. However, you can easily handle the S16 games in the same weekend with the E8 games tipping off at 7:30/9:30 after Sat/Sun coverage of golf is completed (or move Selection Sunday after The Masters if the postponements continue to happen). As for the student athletes, it is clear based on the rescheduling of football games in December that there should be no concerns with this infringing upon graduation if they are playing in late April. I just don't see why it is necessary to get this tournament started at the normal time when it is clear most of the teams can get in close to 25 games if allotted a few extra weeks. And if a school is having success in getting all of their games completed, then start spacing out their final games starting in the middle of February so they aren't sitting around for two weeks doing nothing.
Regardless of the schedule moving or not, I would hope the Big Ten takes the lead in not moving forward with the conference tournament. The conference tournamnet is great to visit as a fan, but really provides little excitement overall as a hoops junkie. As it is, I am additionally concerned of the NCAAs stance this week in noting the defined date of Selection Sunday along with F4, but stating how the preliminary games will be determined at a later date. It appears as though they need time for testing every player and thus the first four games may be delayed a day or two. If that is the case, then move Selection Sunday a few days up or just eliminate the first four games and keep the field to 64. However, DO NOT move the opening weekend games for Thur-Sun to Sat-Tue. That will be completely moronic and I glean this may be entirely possible with them. The opening weekend is heaven for any sports fan. I have sadly spent many a cold winter day watching games throughout the country nonstop from noon to midnight, but I rarely pay attention to the first four games for the NCAA. To add further perspective if you were to give me the option of no first four games in 2016 (i.e. Michigan misses the field) with the round of 64 tipping off on Thursday or Michigan making a field of 68 with the field of 64 starting on Saturday, I would take the former of those two options. Please NCAA do not move the round of 64 from Thursday!
