well the 2014-15 Big Ten conference season played out pretty much exactly as expected (which is rare). Wisconsin was the class of the conference as they looked to be from before the first game was even played. Then there was a scrum of teams fighting for 2nd place behind them. Biggest surprise of the season was probably Nebraska returning the vast majority of their team from last year and totally bombing out. The only other relative surprises in the bunch were Purdue stepping up and finishing in the 4th seed (though they did so with a mostly easy schedule) and Michigan sliding down with injuries. Maryland may have been a bit of a minor surprise finishing in 2nd.
It was kinda scary how the season played out almost exactly to form. Kaminsky was the best player as he was supposed to be. Russell, Blackmon, and Trimble were all the real deal as we thought they'd be.
So what should next season look like in the conference? Well, for the first time in a while there doesn't figure to be a likely top 5 team fighting for a 1 seed in the tourney. Several key players will graduate such as Frank Kaminsky, Branden Dawson, Aaron White, Dez Wells, DJ Newbill, Rayvonte Rice, Shannon Scott, Travis Trice, and Josh Gasser. Others are considering early entry to the draft including D'Angelo Russell, Melo Trimble, Yogi Ferrell, AJ Hammons, Terran Petteway, Caris LeVert, and Sam Dekker (of that list Russell and Dekker are most likely IMHO). What freshman are coming in? Deyonta Davis, Jalen Coleman, JaQuan Lyle, Daniel Giddens, Austin Grandstaff, DJ Williams, Matt McQuaid, Glynn Watson, Corey Sanders, AJ Harris, Brevin Pritzl, Mike Watkins, Kevin Dorsey, and Josh Reaves (all 247 composite top 100) join the conference as well as maybe a late addition here or there. Very little elite talent, but lots of top 100 guys that could be difference makers down the road. Transfers Duncan Robinson and Eron Harris and Trevor Thompson will also eligible next season and injured players like Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert and Tracy Abrams figure to return.
So how do individual teams look?
Michigan
If Caris LeVert doesn't leave, they return everybody from a team that really came on late in the season. Then add in transfer Duncan Robinson and his 6'8" frame and lights out 3 point shooting. Then add back Derrick Walton and DJ Wilson. Not sure if Bielfeldt will stick around for 5th year or if high end European recruit Moritz Wagner will join the fray. Doesn't matter as they will be amongst the favorites to win the conference. Zak Irvin, Aubrey Dawkins, and Muhammed Ali Abdur-Rahkman grew by leaps and bounds this season. Young bigs Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal flash a little potential and figure to grow with another off season in the weight room. Kam Chatman started to come on strong down the stretch. Spike Albrecht will be back as an offensive wizard off the bench. They will go from being the least experienced team in the conference by a mile (after Walton and LeVert went down) to one of the most experienced with all the starts their guys had this year. With Caris back it's a likely top 10 or 15 team (and potentially better) and even if he leaves it's a probable top 25 team. Too much talent, depth, and experience to expect anything else with a coach as great as Beilein.
Michigan State
They will lose Trice and Dawson, but return everybody else including Valentine, Forbes, Costello, and Schilling. They add in high end transfer Eron Harris as well as elite recruit Deyonta Davis. What to expect? Not sure. They don't really have a PG with Trice leaving. I mean they do in Nairns, but he's such a zero shooting the ball (eFG% 34% this year) that it really drags their offense down since you can double off him all day long and he's also so short he doesn't add much on defense. Eron Harris might want to play PG, but he's not really a PG (career assist rate 10%). I almost wonder if they will play a backcourt of Harris and Forbes but let Valentine function as the PG on offense. That could potentially be a very good lineup as it will be pretty big and able to defend well. They will be in the mix for the top of the conference as a likely top 20 team. I'm just not sold on their ability to get any offense in the post losing Dawson.
Maryland
They lose Wells, Smotrycz, Pack, Graham, and possibly Trimble. Trimble staying or going will be the major determinant of how good they are. If he stays, he's possibly the best PG in the conference next season. They've still got some talent, though, with the return of Layman, Dodd, Cekovsky, Nickens, and Wiley. With Trimble they are an easy top 25 team. Without him I have a hard time seeing it.
Wisconsin
Bye-bye probable NPOY Kaminsky, along with Gasser, Dukan, and injured Trae Jackson. Dekker is the major question mark. I suspect he's going to go. He's seen the Final Four, he's won the conference, he's projected as a borderline lottery pick, and he's playing the best basketball of his career. Probably not much upside for him to come back. If he leaves, that means Hayes and Koenig will have to carry a relatively very inexperienced team for Ryan. I really like both their games, but that's asking a lot. Maybe it'll be the year Wisconsin finally finishes outside the top 4, maybe it won't and they sneak in to 4th again. If Dekker is back they can challenge for the title, if not I don't think they can.
Purdue
The only senior they lose in Octeus, though nobody is sure if Hammons wants to leave or not. Even if he leaves I think they'd be fine at center with Haas there. Purdue was an interesting team this season, terrible out of conference, but a shiny conference record somewhat helped by an easy schedule and it landed them likely on just the right side of the bubble for the tourney. Next season you'd hope for a nice improvement from some of their youngsters like Edwards and Haas. They are a deep team but figure to be pretty weak at the PG position next season which will weight them down offensively. To me they seem likely to end up near the middle of the conference, though perhaps just above. Hard to challenge for the top when you have major questions at PG.
Indiana
The other team next to Michigan with no seniors this year. Yogi Ferrell is the only question mark to me as there is some suggestion from IU fans he'll head for the NBA. Everybody else should be back including difference makers Troy Williams and James Blackmon. Next season to me looks similar to this season except a little better if Ferrell comes back. A healthy Mosquera-Perea could really help, though. They have plenty of quickness and 3 point shooting, but still going to be relatively weak inside. Also still coached by Crean (or won't they be???) which hurts them. I think they end up somewhere in the 4th-8th place range in conference play. Hard to fall too far with that many shooters/scorers, but hard to get much better with no defense or interior punch.
Ohio State
They lose Scott, Sam Thompson, Amir Williams, Anthony Lee, Trey McDonald, and almost assuredly D'Angelo Russell. That's a ton of production. They bring in a big and talented freshman class, but it's going to be hard to be a very good team when your only returnees are Jae'Sean Tate, Keita Bates-Diop, Marc Loving, and Kam Williams plus the addition of transfer eligible Trevor Thompson. Matta is a great coach and I suspect he will have them solidly in the top half of the conference, I just don't see how they get near the top.
Iowa
Aaron White is finally graduating and will take with him Olaseni and Oglesby. White has been the heart of the Hawkeyes for 4 years as a scoring, rebounding, and foul drawing machine. They will miss him. They've still got plenty of upper class talent like Uthoff and Woodbury and Gesell to be in the top half of the conference and NCAA bubble land, but without White I have a very hard team seeing them any better than 5th or 6th place. Now if somebody like Peter Jok busts out and has a massive leap next year that could change, but you can say that about most teams. Iowa won't be bad next season, but they won't be great either.
Illinois
Sink or swim time for John Groce. He'll lose Rice, Egwu, and Starks but get back Tracy Abrams. Hill and Nunn figure to carry the load offensively and Black might step up as a sophomore. I just don't see the NCAA tournament happening for them. The team looks much the same as the last few. Getting Abrams back stabilizes the PG position, but he's been a below average Big Ten PG every season of his career. Will next year change for him? Maybe if the career 27% 3 point shooter spent 12 months working his jump shot but that doesn't seem likely (though if it did that would completely change how you'd have to defend them). Jalen Coleman should be a nice little boost to their offense next year but I don't think he can play PG effectively and I don't think you'd put him and Nunn together in the backcourt and expect big results. To me it looks like a team that will putter around near .500 in conference play and end up getting Groce fired.
Nebraska
What happens when you bring back almost everybody from a team that imploded? We will find out. Smith and Rivers (and Abraham) are the only graduating seniors. Will Terran Petteway come back? He might not want to but I can't imagine he has much draft stock. I suspect he comes back for some redemption next season. I also suspect the team bounces back. They drastically exceeded expectations in 2014 and drastically underperformed in 2015. My guess is 2016 sees them back around the middle of the pack. Petteway, Pitchford, and Shields still have some talent. They will also all be seniors next season. Miles isn't a bad coach. They will probably get themselves right onto the NCAA tournament bubble like they were last season.
Northwestern
Cobb and Sobo-cop (Sobolewski) are the graduation losses. They return some talent next season in Olah, McIntosh, Demps, and Law. While I don't think they have the depth to be a top half of the conference team, I'd be less surprised by a big jump by them than some other teams. They might actually have a chance at breaking their 0 for forever NCAA tournament streak next season. McIntosh, Demps, and Law could be one of the better perimeter trios in the conference and Olah is one of the better big men. If they do finally break through, will be interesting to see if Collins name comes up for some better job offers.
Minnesota
Bye-bye Walker, Elliason, Hollins, and Mathieu. That's basically the heart of their team from the last 2 seasons. They'll still have Joey King and Carlos Morris and Nate Mason, but the cupboard is getting a little more bare in Minneapolis. I wanted Pitino to succeed there but maybe it is just bad mojo from Minnesota firing Tubby Smith after taking them to the NCAA tournament.
Penn State
Newbill and Travis move on and they will be hard to replace. Pat Chambers actually has a recruiting class, though, with a couple top 100 kids. The future might actually be looking up in State College. Next season isn't going to be the one, though. Newbill was a beast and they are going to miss his scoring touch. Taylor and Thorpe figure to carry the load next season, but this team seems destined for another season at the bottom.
Rutgers
Mack and Jack were the only 2 solid players on their team this season and they are both gone. They were terrible this year and I'm assuming they will be even worse missing those 2 next season. Eddie Jordan isn't a good coach. He isn't even an average coach. He's just bad. The fact it's hard to recruit to Rutgers makes it impossible for a bad coach to have a chance. I'm assuming he'll be fired after next season. Hopefully they can pluck an up and comer from a mid major they will give them a fighting chance down the line. As it stands we will get to watch Bishop Daniels, Junior Etou, and DJ Foreman jack up bad shots next season and buff up the record of everybody else in the conference. Fun stat from this season: Rutgers ranks 299th or worse in FT shooting, 2 point shooting, and 3 point shooting.
My best guess at final conference standings
1) Michigan
2) Michigan State
3) Maryland
4) Wisconsin
5) Purdue
6) Indiana
7) Ohio State
8) Northwestern
9) Iowa
10) Nebraska
11) Illinois
12) Minnesota
13) Penn State
14) Rutgers
I'm pretty confident about the top 3 or 4 and I'm very confident about the bottom 3. 5-11 is a bit of a jumble to me.
It was kinda scary how the season played out almost exactly to form. Kaminsky was the best player as he was supposed to be. Russell, Blackmon, and Trimble were all the real deal as we thought they'd be.
So what should next season look like in the conference? Well, for the first time in a while there doesn't figure to be a likely top 5 team fighting for a 1 seed in the tourney. Several key players will graduate such as Frank Kaminsky, Branden Dawson, Aaron White, Dez Wells, DJ Newbill, Rayvonte Rice, Shannon Scott, Travis Trice, and Josh Gasser. Others are considering early entry to the draft including D'Angelo Russell, Melo Trimble, Yogi Ferrell, AJ Hammons, Terran Petteway, Caris LeVert, and Sam Dekker (of that list Russell and Dekker are most likely IMHO). What freshman are coming in? Deyonta Davis, Jalen Coleman, JaQuan Lyle, Daniel Giddens, Austin Grandstaff, DJ Williams, Matt McQuaid, Glynn Watson, Corey Sanders, AJ Harris, Brevin Pritzl, Mike Watkins, Kevin Dorsey, and Josh Reaves (all 247 composite top 100) join the conference as well as maybe a late addition here or there. Very little elite talent, but lots of top 100 guys that could be difference makers down the road. Transfers Duncan Robinson and Eron Harris and Trevor Thompson will also eligible next season and injured players like Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert and Tracy Abrams figure to return.
So how do individual teams look?
Michigan
If Caris LeVert doesn't leave, they return everybody from a team that really came on late in the season. Then add in transfer Duncan Robinson and his 6'8" frame and lights out 3 point shooting. Then add back Derrick Walton and DJ Wilson. Not sure if Bielfeldt will stick around for 5th year or if high end European recruit Moritz Wagner will join the fray. Doesn't matter as they will be amongst the favorites to win the conference. Zak Irvin, Aubrey Dawkins, and Muhammed Ali Abdur-Rahkman grew by leaps and bounds this season. Young bigs Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal flash a little potential and figure to grow with another off season in the weight room. Kam Chatman started to come on strong down the stretch. Spike Albrecht will be back as an offensive wizard off the bench. They will go from being the least experienced team in the conference by a mile (after Walton and LeVert went down) to one of the most experienced with all the starts their guys had this year. With Caris back it's a likely top 10 or 15 team (and potentially better) and even if he leaves it's a probable top 25 team. Too much talent, depth, and experience to expect anything else with a coach as great as Beilein.
Michigan State
They will lose Trice and Dawson, but return everybody else including Valentine, Forbes, Costello, and Schilling. They add in high end transfer Eron Harris as well as elite recruit Deyonta Davis. What to expect? Not sure. They don't really have a PG with Trice leaving. I mean they do in Nairns, but he's such a zero shooting the ball (eFG% 34% this year) that it really drags their offense down since you can double off him all day long and he's also so short he doesn't add much on defense. Eron Harris might want to play PG, but he's not really a PG (career assist rate 10%). I almost wonder if they will play a backcourt of Harris and Forbes but let Valentine function as the PG on offense. That could potentially be a very good lineup as it will be pretty big and able to defend well. They will be in the mix for the top of the conference as a likely top 20 team. I'm just not sold on their ability to get any offense in the post losing Dawson.
Maryland
They lose Wells, Smotrycz, Pack, Graham, and possibly Trimble. Trimble staying or going will be the major determinant of how good they are. If he stays, he's possibly the best PG in the conference next season. They've still got some talent, though, with the return of Layman, Dodd, Cekovsky, Nickens, and Wiley. With Trimble they are an easy top 25 team. Without him I have a hard time seeing it.
Wisconsin
Bye-bye probable NPOY Kaminsky, along with Gasser, Dukan, and injured Trae Jackson. Dekker is the major question mark. I suspect he's going to go. He's seen the Final Four, he's won the conference, he's projected as a borderline lottery pick, and he's playing the best basketball of his career. Probably not much upside for him to come back. If he leaves, that means Hayes and Koenig will have to carry a relatively very inexperienced team for Ryan. I really like both their games, but that's asking a lot. Maybe it'll be the year Wisconsin finally finishes outside the top 4, maybe it won't and they sneak in to 4th again. If Dekker is back they can challenge for the title, if not I don't think they can.
Purdue
The only senior they lose in Octeus, though nobody is sure if Hammons wants to leave or not. Even if he leaves I think they'd be fine at center with Haas there. Purdue was an interesting team this season, terrible out of conference, but a shiny conference record somewhat helped by an easy schedule and it landed them likely on just the right side of the bubble for the tourney. Next season you'd hope for a nice improvement from some of their youngsters like Edwards and Haas. They are a deep team but figure to be pretty weak at the PG position next season which will weight them down offensively. To me they seem likely to end up near the middle of the conference, though perhaps just above. Hard to challenge for the top when you have major questions at PG.
Indiana
The other team next to Michigan with no seniors this year. Yogi Ferrell is the only question mark to me as there is some suggestion from IU fans he'll head for the NBA. Everybody else should be back including difference makers Troy Williams and James Blackmon. Next season to me looks similar to this season except a little better if Ferrell comes back. A healthy Mosquera-Perea could really help, though. They have plenty of quickness and 3 point shooting, but still going to be relatively weak inside. Also still coached by Crean (or won't they be???) which hurts them. I think they end up somewhere in the 4th-8th place range in conference play. Hard to fall too far with that many shooters/scorers, but hard to get much better with no defense or interior punch.
Ohio State
They lose Scott, Sam Thompson, Amir Williams, Anthony Lee, Trey McDonald, and almost assuredly D'Angelo Russell. That's a ton of production. They bring in a big and talented freshman class, but it's going to be hard to be a very good team when your only returnees are Jae'Sean Tate, Keita Bates-Diop, Marc Loving, and Kam Williams plus the addition of transfer eligible Trevor Thompson. Matta is a great coach and I suspect he will have them solidly in the top half of the conference, I just don't see how they get near the top.
Iowa
Aaron White is finally graduating and will take with him Olaseni and Oglesby. White has been the heart of the Hawkeyes for 4 years as a scoring, rebounding, and foul drawing machine. They will miss him. They've still got plenty of upper class talent like Uthoff and Woodbury and Gesell to be in the top half of the conference and NCAA bubble land, but without White I have a very hard team seeing them any better than 5th or 6th place. Now if somebody like Peter Jok busts out and has a massive leap next year that could change, but you can say that about most teams. Iowa won't be bad next season, but they won't be great either.
Illinois
Sink or swim time for John Groce. He'll lose Rice, Egwu, and Starks but get back Tracy Abrams. Hill and Nunn figure to carry the load offensively and Black might step up as a sophomore. I just don't see the NCAA tournament happening for them. The team looks much the same as the last few. Getting Abrams back stabilizes the PG position, but he's been a below average Big Ten PG every season of his career. Will next year change for him? Maybe if the career 27% 3 point shooter spent 12 months working his jump shot but that doesn't seem likely (though if it did that would completely change how you'd have to defend them). Jalen Coleman should be a nice little boost to their offense next year but I don't think he can play PG effectively and I don't think you'd put him and Nunn together in the backcourt and expect big results. To me it looks like a team that will putter around near .500 in conference play and end up getting Groce fired.
Nebraska
What happens when you bring back almost everybody from a team that imploded? We will find out. Smith and Rivers (and Abraham) are the only graduating seniors. Will Terran Petteway come back? He might not want to but I can't imagine he has much draft stock. I suspect he comes back for some redemption next season. I also suspect the team bounces back. They drastically exceeded expectations in 2014 and drastically underperformed in 2015. My guess is 2016 sees them back around the middle of the pack. Petteway, Pitchford, and Shields still have some talent. They will also all be seniors next season. Miles isn't a bad coach. They will probably get themselves right onto the NCAA tournament bubble like they were last season.
Northwestern
Cobb and Sobo-cop (Sobolewski) are the graduation losses. They return some talent next season in Olah, McIntosh, Demps, and Law. While I don't think they have the depth to be a top half of the conference team, I'd be less surprised by a big jump by them than some other teams. They might actually have a chance at breaking their 0 for forever NCAA tournament streak next season. McIntosh, Demps, and Law could be one of the better perimeter trios in the conference and Olah is one of the better big men. If they do finally break through, will be interesting to see if Collins name comes up for some better job offers.
Minnesota
Bye-bye Walker, Elliason, Hollins, and Mathieu. That's basically the heart of their team from the last 2 seasons. They'll still have Joey King and Carlos Morris and Nate Mason, but the cupboard is getting a little more bare in Minneapolis. I wanted Pitino to succeed there but maybe it is just bad mojo from Minnesota firing Tubby Smith after taking them to the NCAA tournament.
Penn State
Newbill and Travis move on and they will be hard to replace. Pat Chambers actually has a recruiting class, though, with a couple top 100 kids. The future might actually be looking up in State College. Next season isn't going to be the one, though. Newbill was a beast and they are going to miss his scoring touch. Taylor and Thorpe figure to carry the load next season, but this team seems destined for another season at the bottom.
Rutgers
Mack and Jack were the only 2 solid players on their team this season and they are both gone. They were terrible this year and I'm assuming they will be even worse missing those 2 next season. Eddie Jordan isn't a good coach. He isn't even an average coach. He's just bad. The fact it's hard to recruit to Rutgers makes it impossible for a bad coach to have a chance. I'm assuming he'll be fired after next season. Hopefully they can pluck an up and comer from a mid major they will give them a fighting chance down the line. As it stands we will get to watch Bishop Daniels, Junior Etou, and DJ Foreman jack up bad shots next season and buff up the record of everybody else in the conference. Fun stat from this season: Rutgers ranks 299th or worse in FT shooting, 2 point shooting, and 3 point shooting.
My best guess at final conference standings
1) Michigan
2) Michigan State
3) Maryland
4) Wisconsin
5) Purdue
6) Indiana
7) Ohio State
8) Northwestern
9) Iowa
10) Nebraska
11) Illinois
12) Minnesota
13) Penn State
14) Rutgers
I'm pretty confident about the top 3 or 4 and I'm very confident about the bottom 3. 5-11 is a bit of a jumble to me.
