For the record....that Xavier team was very good. I wouldn't want

[Reality Man]

to play those guys...either would this team either..

https://missouri.rivals.com/bboxscore.asp?Game=78027

Also...don't jump off the wagon yet. Teske should help out and Wagner is going to be good. I think the lesson from tonight's game is the team is going to have to get more physical down low on the boards.

For all the criticism that is going to come for the defense and down low...I thought Dawkins was MIA. Irvin will come back. Robinson is a quality perimeter threat but this team needs Dawkins and he is going to need to shoot the ball and be more assertive. Someone has to be the 3rd guy after LeVert and Walton and it ain't going to be Donnal/Doyle or Chatman. Maybe Irvin. Maybe Wilson (#4).

When UM plays a bigger team (UConn) then trouble lies ahead. This is a perimeter system so UM doesn't throw the ball down low to unathletic guys so it has to come from the #4 or the #3. Team has to score for it to be successful. Something tells me JB is going to find that 3rd option. Real disappointed in Dawkins looked like he just deferred to LeVert the whole night.


RM

 

[JP2Blue]

Xavier is good, no doubt.
What bothers me is we looked like the same bad team that lost to NJIT and EMU at HOME.
Belein needs to pare it down to the top 8 players and forge an identity. We have way too many passive players, this team has no confidence, and maybe with good reason.

 

[Reality Man]

I can't disagree with you but let's use some excuses. I didn't fully comprehend this before last night but this team needs Irvin plain and simple on the floor. Looks like Irvin has a slightly higher release point on his shot but they need him and his talent. Just has to realize not to shot that many 3 pt shots.

Team will get better. Donnal is not a BT center. They need to get more minutes for Wagner and Doyle tries hard but he was truly outclassed athletically last night. I don't have any problem with Doyle but Xavier has some serious talent.

As I have said before (and others)...UM/JB have a perimeter offensive system so they are BUILT to score from the perimeter. There needs to be 4 guys on the floor that can score from the perimeter plus a center who can do some garbage work.

That tells me that Chatman isn't the guy at the 4 in the starting lineup and tells me Irvin needs to get back and that if Dawkins isn't going to be scoring then Robinson needs to on the floor.

That simple...UM doesn't have the inside talent to play a rough and tough/defensive type of game. UM needs guy who are going to score in addition to LeVert and Walton.



RM


P.S. Something tells me that watching that film is going to be hard and not a very good few days of practice . Lot's of defense work.

 

[Shoelace32]

Missouri went 9-23 last year and 3-15 in conference in easily the worst power 5 conference. They had 2 wins after New Years last year. Missouri is one of the worst power 5 teams in the nation. I think Xavier is good but people making they out to be a top 10 team are delusional.

 

[Reality Man]

Fair enough although Xavier beat them soundly. Watching Xavier I thought they were definitely top 20.


RM

 

[Mroad]

I thought the team looked very weak in the middle. Donnal, Wilson and Chatman all lack the strength and aggression to play effectively in the paint. Doyle has the strength but lacks coordination and athleticism to be an effective rebounder. Xavier is a good team but the Big Ten is a physical conference and this team needs to figure out a way to play with more effort and passion or it will be a very mediocre season.

 

[Reality Man]

I am going to harp on this again. The JB system (whether you like it or not) is predicated on offense. Passion needs to be there but he doesn't expect a lot from his #5 except on defense and Doyle was outclassed.

Chatman is a role player for JB. Irvin needs to get back on the floor because he can add something for this team offensively when playing well. Donnal...needs less time. Wagner is the 'x' factor who can develop and needs to develop because he has something the other two guys don't have...some athleticism and toughness but he is raw.

Doyle is a specialty player but when he is going up against other physical then he is going to need to be hidden in zones or go the #4 spot. I see him like Chatman...a specialty player and not a core staple guy.

JB is going to need Dawkins, Irvin and Robinson to score consistently to help out LeVert and Walton. It's those 3 guys plus Wagner who are the key guys to make this system work and then everyone else play their role and obviously work on getting out on your man and playing better defense.

Xavier is a quality team. Don't kid yourself. I have watched a lot of teams and that team is formidable and of high quality. They have a little bit of everything and that team is going to make noise this year...meaning you will hear the name Xavier mentioned even before the tournament starts.

Here is how I see it.

4-6 pts from the #5 plus rebounding
8-12 pts from the #4
12-16 pts from the #3
10-16 pts from the #2
10 pts from the #1
14-18 pts from the bench

That is the recipe for this team plus some decent defense.



RM

 

[Mroad]

Donnal is now in his third year in the program and simply looked lost...I can't imagine he gets many minutes moving forward. I agree that Chatman looks like a role player...probably an 8th or 9th man. I was probably most disappointed in the play of Wilson. I thought he would be a difference maker this year because of his height and athleticism but he needs to play with way more energy and passion. I also like Wagner but you have to remember he recently turned 18 years old and is not physically ready to play in the middle against most Big Ten teams. I think he will be an impact player for us next year but I just don't see him being a major contributor this year. We need Levert, Walton, Irvin, Robinson and Spike to lead this team...unfortunately none of those names play in the paint. I really hope one of our big guys steps it up as the season progresses.

 

[diggersdad]

to play those guys...either would this team either..

https://missouri.rivals.com/bboxscore.asp?Game=78027

Also...don't jump off the wagon yet. Teske should help out and Wagner is going to be good. I think the lesson from tonight's game is the team is going to have to get more physical down low on the boards.

For all the criticism that is going to come for the defense and down low...I thought Dawkins was MIA. Irvin will come back. Robinson is a quality perimeter threat but this team needs Dawkins and he is going to need to shoot the ball and be more assertive. Someone has to be the 3rd guy after LeVert and Walton and it ain't going to be Donnal/Doyle or Chatman. Maybe Irvin. Maybe Wilson (#4).

When UM plays a bigger team (UConn) then trouble lies ahead. This is a perimeter system so UM doesn't throw the ball down low to unathletic guys so it has to come from the #4 or the #3. Team has to score for it to be successful. Something tells me JB is going to find that 3rd option. Real disappointed in Dawkins looked like he just deferred to LeVert the whole night.


RM

JB is a great guy, but he is the problem. We will never be a truly premier program with him as coach. Can't coach or develop big guys. Needs to go back to a league that is les physical. We won't make the NCAA's this year or next, and John will be out....I hope

 

[Reality Man]

The JB system works BUT only when he has 4 guys on the floor that can score plus a center that can give some garbage points.

Once his system comes down to 2 primary scorers then it comes down basically a grinding halt. JB needs points from the #4 because he doesn't get them from the #5. He is dealing with the fact he needs at least something from the #5 on defense and Doyle is not athletic enough for the better #5's. Wagner needs to be developed. Not necessarily to become the starter but to help out Doyle for about 15 minutes or so per game...an energy infusion.

Wilson has to be hidden with a zone if he plays the #5.


Here is what I would focus on if I were JB. Chatman is a specialty guy along with Wilson. The #4 plus Dawkins/Robinson have to contribute about 30 pts per game combined...minimum. End of story. The Xavier game looked like some of the Trey Burke 1 on 1 games back in the day. Walton is not a big enough scorer and that really shouldn't be his primary concern.

This team needs to clearly improve with defensive intensity (looking at Dawkins/Robinson) and I have already forgotten about Donnal. They also need to emphasize #4 and #3 spot production. 30 minimum points a game from those 3 guys I mentioned. I am going to give a prediction...

Irvin/Chatman/Dawkins/Robinson

Less than 30 pts and they will lose (75% of the time)
More than 30 pts a game (will always be a competitive game)
35 pts a game (will win 75% of the time)
40 pts a game (will always win this year)

I will keep track of this too



RM

 

[guestavo]

1. Dawkins and Duncan Robinson can't both be getting major minutes. Both are too bad defensively. I don't care what they score. JB needs to give either DJ or Kam major minutes and develop them as a rebounder and someone who uses their length to get steals using their length. Don't need 6 shooters in the rotation.

2. Donnal needs to sit. Mo Wagner needs to be thrown in the fire as the 2nd big. He will at least battle for rebounds, in the post, get out in transition, catch the ball + dunk and hit an occasional 3. Who knows how fast he gets "it?"

3. Walton will never be a great finisher in the halfcourt. Must get rebounds and steals and beat the D before it can set up. In the halfcourt, must take that elbow jumper more and develop a floater.

4. I want to see more Irvin PnR. When the offense runs through him, the ball movement is best. I am all for LeVert ISOs and in combination with Irvin PnR, it'll make for 2 offensive looks that'll make UM dynamic in the halfcourt.

5. Our bigmen have to stop over playing PnR. They are not athletic enough. A 2-3 zone may be best this year.

 

[Reality Man]

Fair points although DJ and Kam aren't going to score enough plus Doyle isn't going to score. Walton is not a consistent scorer so it's going to come down to LeVert every night...UM will score 40 pts some nights.

UM has to get Irvin/Dawkins/Robinson to score AND to play defense. The bottom line is that JB should say to Dawkins and Robinson...whoever plays harder defense gets the most minutes .

UM is not beating anyone defensively but it has to play defense. JB builds teams for offense so these 3 guys need to help out LeVert and Walton.

Plain and simple. Do you really think Wilson and Chatman are going to be good enough offensively? Not me.



RM

 

[Reality Man]

By the way Guestavo...I agree Walton is not going to be a great finisher in half court. Not his game...he is a distributor which only reinforces the fact that UM needs more scoring from players other than LeVert.

JB has enough guys on this roster who can score but I see something right now that is just as troublesome as the defense and that is a team that is too scoring concentrated. JB needs to emphasize balance scoring which even includes somehow developing Chatman and Wilson.

Albrecht is going to get healthy but it looks like right now LeVert is going to turn into the Trey Burke show. I give this team a pass right now because Irvin is not up and running but he will clearly help but Dawkins better get the memo that he needs to shoot more and not go away like GR3 when he misses a couple of shots and just look for alley oops.

I am looking for balance shots across the roster when they play UConn and more passionate defense.



RM

 

[guestavo]

Fair points although DJ and Kam aren't going to score enough plus Doyle isn't going to score.

Scoring will be fine once Irvin and Spike are 100%.

Rebounding will not thus my preference.

Walton/LeVert/Irvin/Dawkins/Doyle/Spike/Wagner/Kam or Wilson....Robinson is a speciality player who would come in few minutes a game to launch 3s.

 

[Reality Man]

I think so far Robinson has shown he is the main 6th man. The question is can he hold his own on the defensive end.

I don't think scoring will be sufficient enough with Irvin, Spike, Walton and LeVert.

We agree to disagree. UM needs both Robinson and Dawkins to score consistently too.


RM

 

[guestavo]

If Irvin, Spike, Walton, Dawkins and LeVert aren't enough scoring then it doesn't matter. UM will be bad.

I think

Levert - 17 ppg
Irvin - 13 ppg
Walton - 11 ppg
Dawkins - 9 ppg

is enough.

 

[Reality Man]

Close...UM is going to need about 20 combined from Robinson and Dawkins for this team to be good along with your #'s.

Why?...because I don't think Chatman and a hobbled Albrecht is consistently able to put up #'s or Doyle/Wagner for that matter. I think your LeVert and Walton #'s are about right. I think your Irvin # is about right but I see Dawkins/Robinson as the primary scoring option behind LeVert and it needs to deliver as a package.

20 pts. I don't think that is too much to ask from those two players especially with your projections.


RM

 

[guestavo]

Robinson and Dawkins will give up 20 pts a game. They'd need to score 25-30 to even make it worth it most nights. I think its unlikely you get 20 or more from them than a handful of times.

 

[Mroad]

I'm still not sold on Kam. Similarly to Wilson and Donnal, it doesn't appear he gained much strength from last year. Furthermore his play still seems inconsistent. The players that are going to see major minutes this year are Levert, Walton, Doyle, Irvin, Spike, Dawkins and Robinson. I think Wagner has a lot of potential but he is the youngest on the team and is not strong enough to be very effective this year. Kam will still get opportunities but I don't think he is better than the 8 players I listed above. Beilein has to figure out a way to get more defense and rebounding out of this team.

 

[guestavo]

Beilein has to figure out a way to get more defense and rebounding out of this team.

Not happening.

If thats the top 8 then UM is a bubble team.

 

[Reality Man]

JB has to somehow get the message across to Dawkins to play harder on defense. Robinson is going to have to be hidden somewhat like Wilson.

I like Chatman as a role guy now. I just don't see him consistently scoring and with the JB system...if you ain't scoring then the system breaks down except on those occasions where LeVert and or another guy is hot.

JB's system has a flaw on some level. It can't consistently take a scorer off the floor because the #5 doesn't score unless it's Morgan. It's hard to beat any good team with 3 guys who can only score unless they are playing well but then teams start concentrating on the 'hot' guys.

In fact...going forward if Wagner/Doyle can't get it done then JB may have to go entirely small and get Wilson and/or Chatman to the #5 and start pnr and the defensive zone.

That simple.


RM

 

[bradtedeschi]

Wait... People are seriously questioning JB's ability as our coach? How is that possible?