Challenge. The Nddecker1 edition...

[Reality Man]

Ok folks. You give me a reason that UM can't be good this year before any potential injuries. Let me explain.

Why should I believe that UM can't win 9 game this year. Let me make the case.


1. Does the defense have enough players? Add Peppers. Add Lyons. Coaches. Good talent on DL.

So on paper UM has a good defense. On paper...looks above average.


2. Does the offense have enough players. It added a BT experienced qb. On paper. It added a guy who was good enough to play for USC. Has a couple of guys who look to be adequate in Smith and Green. Has on paper a quality TE. On paper it has a competent #2 BT receiver...call it #3.

Maybe they don't have a deep threat but enough talent to get the job done.


3. Proven/quality coaches.

4. A proven ST coach although I can't tell you what will happen.

5. A favorable schedule in the Big Ten.

6. Experienced OL. Cole & Kalis. Glasgow.


So just take UM out of the team and call it Big Ten team 'X'. Why I am supposed to believe that this team can't be a high level Big Ten team?

This isn't last years team. This 'x' team didn't have Peppers, Lyons, Isaac, Rudock. These are 4 new starters who are replacing weak links plus a new coach.

Again...why should I expect anything less than 9 wins. Give me the Nddecker1 pessimistic outlook.



Reality Man

 

[nddecker1]

Michigan COULD win 9 games this year, it's not completely outside the realm of possibility. It's a relatively manageable schedule and Michigan isn't completely devoid of all talent.

That said, if the over/under is placed at 9 for the 2015 Michigan regular season....I'm taking the under.

As for why:

Offense

Your offense simply lacks any single peice that can be relied on as a "go-to"

Your "savior" grad transfer QB from Iowa is NOT a quality player. Iowa has always been my #2 team, so I've watched a lot of his games. The reality is that there is a reason that Iowa has not had a scoring offense, total offense, or pass effeciency rating crack the Top50 (or even get close) in either of the last 2 years with Ruddock as the starter....he's an INCREDIBLY LIMITED player.
I know Michigan fans want to hope against hope with the line "Well he'll be surrounded by better talent at Michigan" but the reality is that's not true either. Michigan certainly doesn't have more talent at WR (they barely have any talent at WR at all) and aren't even in the same discussion as Iowa on the OL. Michigan probably has an edge at RB, but the reality is that neither team has anything reliable and proven here beyond a RB who is really a FB on both teams. Michigan has the edge at TE, but that's no where near enought to put them beyond Iowa's offensive talent......and that's just the talent it took to have Ruddock QB his way to ~75th best offense in CFB (or well below average).

At RB, Michigan fans want to look at star ratings and imagine they have a stud...but in reality they don't have a single RB who's proven he's even in the top half of the Big10. Isaac was the #5 RB at USC, and was behind a fellow frosh RB, who has shown to be "good but not great" at USC. Why is there any reason to believe that Isaac is better (or even equal to) the "good but not great" RB that he was sitting behind? Green has yet to show anything at all against any competition with a pulse. Smith is a solid player, but the reality is that he's a FB not a RB, and he just doesn't have the athleticism or speed necessary to be a difference maker. Drake Johnson was by FAR the best RB on the Michigan roster, imo...but after a 2nd ACL tear...who know's if he'll ever play again, or what he'll be like if/when he does.

You simply have nothing at WR. There is just nothing here to scare any defense. Darboh is a solid possession WR and would be an okay #2 WR on a standard team and would be a #3/#4 type of WR on a really good team. Chesson blocks well but isn't a WR. Everyone else has shown absolutely nothing.
This position group would make life very hard for any QB, even if Michigan had an All-American playing behind center. With a an extremely limited QB throwing to an (impressively) even more limited WR group there is basically no reason for teams not to stack 8-9 defenders in the box on every play and blitz like crazy.

This brings me to the last issue...Michigan doesn't have a proven or dependable OL
Michigan has a few decent pieces on the OL. Glasgow is solid, Braden could eventually be good at OG, Cole could be good after he develops more physically, etc....but the reality here is that almost none of these guys have put it all together as individuals, much less have the put it together as a group.
This OL is going to be facing stacked boxes and exotic blizes because of the MASSIVE LIMITATIONS of the passing game mentioned above. Given the state and talent of this OL, that spells disaster.

I really don't know how Michigan fans look at this offense and see a group that will do anything but stuggle, stuggle, STRUGGLE




Defense

2014 Defense against quality opponents

We'll go into more detail on the defense in a minute, but it's important to note that while Michigan's overall defensive stats were good in 2014, the defense itself really wasn't impressive against teams with a pulse.

If you look at the teams that Michigan's defense was able to hold under 25 points v. those they weren't:

Held under 25 points: Appy St, Miami (OH), Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Penn St
Allowed 25+ points: Ohio St, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Utah, Minnesota, Rutgers

So Michigan managed to hold 2 bowl teams under 25 points.
How many bowl teams do Michigan fans expect to beat if that's the level of the defense in 2015?



Specifically....

I actually like the Michigan defense against the run, especially against the interior run. I think the interior of the Michigan DL has the size and ability to hold their own and make plays in the run game and I think the LB's are strongest in this phase of the game. I like ILB Bolden alot against the run, he has good size and is a strong tackler.

Michigan was strong against the interior run for most of 2014, and even though you lost your best LB (who was a HUGE part of the middle of that defense being so solid) I think this will continue in 2015.

The peices are there in the middle of the DL to rotate, distrupt, and stay strong against the run. (Mone, Henry, Hurst, Glasgow) and while the LB core isn't as deep or as talented, they're solid enough in this phase of the game (especially Bolden, who seems like a potential NFL player at ILB).


That said...the issue I see with this defense is against the pass. The 2015 Michigan defense seems to have "okay, but nothing special" in all 3 major areas of pass defense: Pass Rush, CB coverage ability, experience/organization in the secondary

In pass rush: Michigan lost it's #1 and #2 sack leaders from 2014, both of whom were the best edge rushers. Charlton has shown flashes of ability here, but is far from reliable there. The same can be said of Ojemudia. Beyond that there is little to nothing proven here. Imo this is the biggest issue for the Michigan pass defense.

In CB Coverage: Lewis is a solid CB, but nothing special. Lyons was the same for Stanford, so you hope that he's able to quickly switch teams/schemes and stay at that "solid, but not special" level. This isn't an "issue" persay, but isn't a strength either. When there is a lack of real pass rush, great coverage is necessary to give the DL extra time and this group doesn't really seem up to that, at least on paper.

In DB organization: I love the physical ability of Michigan's safeies, especially Peppers and Hill...but this is a very young/new DB group overall and it's going to inevitably suffer the errors that all new DB groups do (especially when their scheme is heavily slanted towards man coverage)....mental errors and communication errors leading to big plays.


With these strengths and weaknesses, considering the losses (Ryan, Clark, Beyer, Taylor, etc.), additions (Peppers, Lyons, etc.) and development...I'm expecting this defense to be similar to the 2014 Michigan defense.

While that's not a terrible thing, the real issue is that means there will likely be ~6 teams that score in the 25-35 point range....which won't be a good thing for Michigan when the offense is considered




Overall, I'm looking for Michigan to be solid but not great on defense (due to a lack of playmakers, especially up front and on the edges) and to REALLY STRUGGLE on offense (due to a lack of any true "go-to", complete lack of play makers, and defenses consistently stacking/blizting)

If I had to guess W/L's right now:

@Utah -- L
Oregon St -- W
UNLV -- W
BYU -- L
@Maryland -- W
Northwestern -- W
Michigan St -- L
@Minnesota -- L
Rutgers -- W
@Indiana -- W
@Penn St -- L
Ohio State -- L

That's just off hand right now
I could really go either way on a lot of those games (Utah, MSU, OSU are the only "really likely losses" that I see, and UNLV, Northwestern, Indiana, Oregon St are the only "really likely wins" that I see)

 

[Reality Man]

Too pessimistic although you do have a good handle on the UM

roster. Are you a closet UM fan/stalker?


I am a little dumbfounded by your main comment which I think speaks to the major point of disagreement. Your statement below.

Your "savior" grad transfer QB from Iowa is NOT a quality player.


That seems somewhat harsh. Would you say Rudock is better than Gardner? If Yes..how many games do you think UM improves last year with Rudock vs. Gardner. 1 game? What is the over/under with Rudock if he was with UM last year?

Second, you mention the defense last year and the points allowed. Now..what is the net gain/loss with Peppers & Lyons? Does a quality safety and a true corner pushing Countess to nickel make a difference? I think you acknowledge a possible improvement.

Third, you do realize UM is in the Big Ten. Am I supposed to be afraid of BYU, Utah, PSU, Minny and MSU/(Home)? You have UM losing every toss up game for the most part. Should I pick one of these teams and show you all their flaws?

Fourth...of all the comments (I do agree on the wr's...chesson is pretty weak along with the core unless someone else rises to the occasion)....the dismissal of Isaac I do find amusing. Your argument seems to be he was this old guy buried on the USC depth chart. He was a young guy. I don't think USC was that happy about losing Isaac. See below..

You definitely see UM football as glass half empty. I think it's reasonable to be skeptical but as I mentioned...way too pessimistic. It's like reading UM transferred to the SEC West.





While the USC Trojans[/B] have struggled with depth issues at many positions in recent years, the one position they have been loaded with talent is at running back. Last season, USC had five different running backs log at least 40 carries as injuries forced the team to find new options out of the backfield. While that depth is great for the team, at least one member of that logjam has had enough as Ty Isaac[/B] has announced that he will transfer for 2014.



Isaac came to USC as the No. 13 rated athlete in the 2013 recruiting class and showed tremendous promise at running back. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound freshman was electric when he was able to find his way onto the field and finished his first year on campus with 40 carries for 236 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite his talent, however, Isaac faced the prospect of being the No. 4 option on the depth chart this fall and made the decision to transfer closer to home.

 

[Andover1]

Interesting discussion here
This post was edited on 4/20 1:50 PM by Andover1

 

[nddecker1]

1.) I don't think Ruddock is better than Gardner at all. Ruddock is more risk adverse, but he's not a fraction of the playmaker that Gardner was. I get that Michigan fans hated watching Gardner regress…but the reality is that he was a much more talented QB than Ruddock and a better player overall. He was just playing behind an abortion of an O-Line while Ruddock had the #1 OL in CFB playing LT for him (and an overall solid OL beyond that).

Watch some of the film on Ruddock, when he has a powerful run game and is totally protected he's the "solid game manager" that Michigan talk about (even then, he's nothing more than that). But any time that teams start to get pressure on him…he completely falls apart. When he doesn't feel comfortable, his RB/FB/TE become his only reads (he stops even looking for his WRs) and he starts throwing a lot of balls into the dirt, out of bounds, or over everyone's head.

Given the state of Michigan's OL…I expect to see a lot of that out of Ruddock this upcoming season…which is what leads Ruddock's offense to always finish outside the Top50 in all of scoring offense, total offense, and passing offense.
I would bet that if Ruddock had been the starting QB for Michigan in 2014, you would have lost 1-2 additional games (you wouldn't have had nearly any offense without Gardner and Ruddock would have fallen apart behind that OL).


2.) Yes, adding Peppers and Lyons will help your defense…however losing Ryan, Taylor, Clark, Beyer will hurt. Overall, (from a talent perspective) I think your secondary improved while your LB got weaker and your DL stayed about the same.
Overall, I think your defensive talent is very similar to 2014, maybe a little bit better but not a major change. (For example I see Lyons and Taylor as about an even trade).

The reality is, that Michigan wasn't a special defense in 2014 and they don't appear to be one in 2015 either. Outside of Peppers, there appears to be a significant lack of team speed and athleticism on Michigan's defense, and I think they'll struggle with any offense who has a competent OL and doesn't play "straight ahead" (power, interior rushing)


3.) Yes, I realize Michigan is in the Big10, if you look I noted that your schedule is manageable. But you're vastly underappreciating some of your opponents.

You SHOULD be worried about Utah and BYU, both have as much or more talent than Michigan right now and both have MUCH BETTER players at QB, RB, and WR.

And no, I didn't pick you to lose all of your close games. You might not respect these teams, but @Rutgers and Maryland will be tough games for Michigan (and Rutgers is going to be a very tough out in 2015). I did pick against Michigan with BYU, Minnesota, and PSU…and those are games that could very much go the other way.

You may not like it, but MSU, OSU, and Utah aren't 50/50 games for Michigan. Those teams are all better than Michigan for 2014 and there is a reason they're all favored.


4.) What are is the basis for your "higher than mine" opinion of Isaac?

Isaac was 5th on the USC depth chart, 5th!! He was just a frosh, but he was behind another frosh…who isn't a dominant player at all.

I'm not saying that Isaac is a completely useless or talentless player nor that he can't be useful…which is the strawman argument that you seem to be arguing against.

What I am saying is that Isaac doesn't appear to be a game changing RB ala Elliott (OSU), Chubb (UGA), Fournette (LSU), Freeman (Oregon), Pernine (Okla), etc. (if he was, he would have been high on the depth chart and above other frosh, as these game changers were)
Nor is he proven commodity that you can rely on such as Clement (Wisc), Folston (ND), Connor (Pitt), etc.

He has potential to be a good RB, but he doesn't appear to be an elite level talent nor has he even shown that he is a consistent producer.
This post was edited on 4/20 1:54 PM by nddecker1

 

[nddecker1]

The reality is, your roster breaks down like this

QB -- Weak
Can be "decent" when everything around him is humming, but when anything else isn't going just right he's a liability and he's not a playmaker even under the best of circumstances

RB -- Average
You have "recruiting stars" but you don't have a single player that's a proven producer nor anyone that's even shown flashes of brialliance against quality competition. The best hope here is a player that's barely played in 2+ years, because we don't know for a fact yet what he is (though it's obvious he's not elite)

WR -- Very Weak
There is just no play-making here at all, and there is also a major lack of consistency catch the ball and executing blocks (everyone by Chesson)

TE -- Solid
There isn't a elite talent here, however Butt is a good player and can help you win games. That said, there is no one proven behind him, which will hurt when trying to run multiple TE sets.

OL -- Weak to Average
This unit hasn't even played up to the "Weak" label yet, but they have the pieces to be "Average". They haven't shown the ability to look good against even decent competition, but they started showing it against poor competition in 2014 and have some potential peices so they could improve

DL -- Average to Good
There are a lot of pieces here, and many with potential. The interior of the DL looks to have a lot of potential, though there is no proven playmaker it seems like this group will be solid. The bigger question is on the edges, and whether anyone has the athleticism to play there. A couple guys have potential but nothing here is anywhere near proven.

LB -- Average
Bolden is a nice player, but he's not elite. Beyond that, there is nothing to write home about at LB though there are enough experienced optoins that it's hard to see this group end up as a massive liability. Basically "solid, but lacks playmaking and top end talent"

CB -- Good
Assuming Lyons continues on as the player he was a Stanford, Lewis and Lyons are a good combo. They're not elite and won't shut down top level WRs or passing attacks, but they can be effective in at least challenging/limiting almost any group.

S -- Good to Very Good
The physical talent and athleticism is definitely present at safet with Peppers, Hill, and Wilson and Wilson also brings experience. The quality of this group will really only be limited by the mental progress of the players and their ability to read the opponent and organize the defense



That's not a terrible team overall, but I wouldn't call it a good one either


I could see Michigan win anywhere from 5-9 games, but I think ending in the 6-8 win range is what is likely for 2015

 

[Reality Man]

After reading this comment (below)...give me a few minutes to

determine whether I want to read further. I honestly don't know what to say. Do you believe Brian Ellerbe did good job at UM? I respect most of your comments but I do need to take some time and digest your comment below. Maybe there is a UM fan who could convince me read your comments further.



1.) I don't think Ruddock is better than Gardner at all. Ruddock is more risk adverse, but he's not a fraction of the playmaker that Gardner was. I get that Michigan fans hated watching Gardner regress…but the reality is that he was a much more talented QB than Ruddock and a better player overall. He was just playing behind an abortion of an O-Line while Ruddock had the #1 OL in CFB playing LT for him (and an overall solid OL beyond that).

 

[nddecker1]

Re: After reading this comment (below)...give me a few minutes to

Originally posted by Reality Man:
determine whether I want to read further. I honestly don't know what to say. Do you believe Brian Ellerbe did good job at UM? I respect most of your comments but I do need to take some time and digest your comment below. Maybe there is a UM fan who could convince me read your comments further.



1.) I don't think Ruddock is better than Gardner at all. Ruddock is more risk adverse, but he's not a fraction of the playmaker that Gardner was. I get that Michigan fans hated watching Gardner regress…but the reality is that he was a much more talented QB than Ruddock and a better player overall. He was just playing behind an abortion of an O-Line while Ruddock had the #1 OL in CFB playing LT for him (and an overall solid OL beyond that).

I really don't care whether you read further or not, that's the reality of the situation

Ruddock is not some "Brian Griese type" that Michigan wants him to be. He's a "Tommy Rees type" player, who is only a good game manager when the RB/TE/OL are already rolling in the run game and the FB/TE/OL are rolling in pass protection.
When either of those components is missing...Ruddock is a D2 level QB

I don't know how much Iowa football you've actually watched, but I rarely miss a game (as I said, they're my #2 team, and you can see I follow my CFB)

You may want to harken back to last off-season, when Michigan fans we droning on and on about how Gardner was not only more talented than Golson but a much more reliable QB as well and it was for this reason that you were going to win a lot in 2014 (including v. ND)

Gardner was never the 1st Round Draft Pick type of talents Michigan fans imagined him to be, but he's was flat-out more talented than Ruddock (though Ruddock is more risk adverse and won't try to "force things" or "make plays happen" when they're not right there already)

The reality is, you're taking a major step forward in QB safety and a major step backwards in QB talent and playmaking ability

 

[nddecker1]

To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

 

[PharmD Blue]

At the end of the day, UM will finish with a better record than ND

And there is absolutely NO reason to think otherwise. Find someone who does less than more that is currently coaching than BK. 5-7 wins is ND's max this year.

 

[Reality Man]

I still haven't read the rest of your comments although I think you

have convinced me of even an additional viewpoint. If Gardner is better than Rudock then I do agree with you...UM will be under .500 no matter how good the defense is this year. You win.

Holy crap...UM is worse off with Gardner gone. How do we replace a 2-1 int to td ratio? 3-1? Yep...UM gets that production and they may not win a game all year.


Reality Man

 

[nddecker1]

Re: I still haven't read the rest of your comments although I think you

Originally posted by Reality Man:
have convinced me of even an additional viewpoint. If Gardner is better than Rudock then I do agree with you...UM will be under .500 no matter how good the defense is this year. You win.

Holy crap...UM is worse off with Gardner gone. How do we replace a 2-1 int to td ratio? 3-1? Yep...UM gets that production and they may not win a game all year.


Reality Man

Ruddock had an 34TD/18INT ratio in his 2 years as a starter at Iowa (just under 2TD/1INT) so I would expect that type of ratio to continue
I would expect the ratio to be closer to the 18TD/13INT that he had in his 1st year as a starter, as your offense won't protect him the way the 2014 Iowa offense did (very strong OL, very conservative game plan)

The TD/INT ratio and care with the ball are obvious areas that Ruddock is going to be a step forward for Michigan in, over Gardner


The area that Ruddock will be step backwards is production and play-making

To wrap your mind around the difference they bring in terms of ability to produce for the offense...

Average Production Stats per Game v. BCS Conf. Teams
Gardner -- 250 yards (220 passing, 30 rushing) , 2.5 TD (1.5 Passing, 1.0 Rushing)
Ruddock -- 190 yards (180 passing, 10 rushing) , 1.75 TD (1.5 Passing, 0.25 Rushing)


Basically, you're looking to get improved efficiency (TD/INT, Comp %) from Ruddock but lessened production (yards, TDs) as well as a decrease in the variety of threats that opponents will have to defend

 

[nddecker1]

Re: At the end of the day, UM will finish with a better record than ND

Originally posted by PharmD Blue:
And there is absolutely NO reason to think otherwise. Find someone who does less than more that is currently coaching than BK. 5-7 wins is ND's max this year.

Not going engage on an flame attemp unrelated to the topic of this thread
If you want to talk about ND, or compare ND and UM, feel free to start another thread doing so and I'll respond

But you might want to look at a 31-0 beat-down/shutout as 1 possible reason....lol

 

[Reality Man]

Speaking of that ND beatdown...can you factor in the Gardner

performance in the outcome of that game?


Let's make it simple. I'll have you a bet that Rudock wins the job and has a better year than Gardner (td's & int's) had last year.


We on? If so...what is the bet. Seems like a good bet for you. Rudock is worse than Gardner so he won't beat out Morris so you will win if Ruddock is playing. The bottom line will be td's to int ratio.

I'll throw in another variable...Rudock will need to improve the record of UM when he starts a game. That's 3 opportunities to win the bet.


Reality Man

 

[Westcoast24]

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

Coach holtz. I thought you were retiring? Sigh
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[Duhawk47]

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

decker looks at it far more objectively then I would, and can't argue with much that he's posted (although I can't compare Jake to Gardner as I don't believe I saw Gardner play last year). Yet I've had to watch Rudock go full turtle when under pressure, and then watch CJ have the patience of two more ticks and get the ball downfield. KF isn't that tricky to have two playbooks, one conservative for Jake and another wide open for CJ. It was no secret among the mods that CJ was GDs favorite and choice if he had one. KF thought he was still too much of a slinger, but all that changed as the season progressed.

I'm most interested in the bolded part....were there articles posted alluding to Harbaugh not having interest in the beginning?
It would make sense if there were. We knew Jake was transferring, either to Michigan or Boise St., but nothing formal was ever said for quite some time. Some speculated he was waiting for the B10 office to approve the transfer, maybe it was Harbaugh all along?

The irony of all this is that we (Iowa) hope that with a change of staff and team chemistry, it works out for him. He's a good kid, but his dad is a real pos.

Anyway, enough lurking...can't help as we're just as interested as you guys.

 

[nddecker1]

Re: Speaking of that ND beatdown...can you factor in the Gardner

Originally posted by Reality Man:
performance in the outcome of that game?


Let's make it simple. I'll have you a bet that Rudock wins the job and has a better year than Gardner (td's & int's) had last year.


We on? If so...what is the bet. Seems like a good bet for you. Rudock is worse than Gardner so he won't beat out Morris so you will win if Ruddock is playing. The bottom line will be td's to int ratio.

I'll throw in another variable...Rudock will need to improve the record of UM when he starts a game. That's 3 opportunities to win the bet.


Reality Man

Not so strong in the reading cateogy, eh?

You might want to circle back to the posts above where I clearly describe Ruddock improving on Gardner in efficency (TD/INT ration, Comp %) but regressing from him in production (Yards, TDs) and in versatility

You also may want to note my record prediction (an improvement from your record last year)

So you're basically saying I should bet I things I just got done saying won't happen??



I'm sorry that Michigan has little to no proven talent on offense, is solid but not great on defense, and is staring down another mediocre to below average season.....really not my fault, just the reality of your situation

If you really feel differently and can actually site reasons (not made up hope and optimism about players/people who haven't shown anything at all) let me know, I'd be happy to discuss it with you

 

[nddecker1]

Originally posted by tkirschner:

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

Coach holtz. I thought you were retiring? Sigh

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Wait...so now you don't trust Harbaugh's evaluation??

Harbaugh evaluated Ruddock and said "Thanks but No Thanks" to his interest to transfer to Michigan (well reported, by this site even).....until he got a first hand look at the other QB options on the Michigan roster this spring (or lack there of)

So now Harbaugh's evaluation isn't good enough for Michigan fans?

 

[Westcoast24]

Originally posted by nddecker1:

Originally posted by tkirschner:

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

Coach holtz. I thought you were retiring? Sigh

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Wait...so now you don't trust Harbaugh's evaluation??

Harbaugh evaluated Ruddock and said "Thanks but No Thanks" to his interest to transfer to Michigan (well reported, by this site even).....until he got a first hand look at the other QB options on the Michigan roster this spring (or lack there of)

So now Harbaugh's evaluation isn't good enough for Michigan fans?

That's not what I was saying. I was just comparing you to another slobbering domer that seems to know all.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[PharmD Blue]

Re: At the end of the day, UM will finish with a better record than ND

For ND fans to think anything better than 5-7 wins this year is absolutely blind homerism. The facts are: as long as ND has BK as the head coach they will never develop the talent they need to. There is not a coach in America who does less with more than BK and he continuously proves it year after year. Just be happy if you make a bowl ND fans.

 

[nddecker1]

Originally posted by tkirschner:

Originally posted by nddecker1:

Originally posted by tkirschner:

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

Coach holtz. I thought you were retiring? Sigh


Posted from Rivals Mobile

Wait...so now you don't trust Harbaugh's evaluation??

Harbaugh evaluated Ruddock and said "Thanks but No Thanks" to his interest to transfer to Michigan (well reported, by this site even).....until he got a first hand look at the other QB options on the Michigan roster this spring (or lack there of)

So now Harbaugh's evaluation isn't good enough for Michigan fans?

That's not what I was saying. I was just comparing you to another slobbering domer that seems to know all.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

Well if you have an actual, fact-based disagreement with anything that I've said so far in this thread and can give a reasonable explanation of said disagreement...I'd love to hear it

Otherwise, it seems like you're just lost on set, mindlessly thumping you're favorite team against someone presenting actual facts.
Now if only there was some kind of recently retired ESPN personality to compare that behavior to....

 

[nddecker1]

Re: At the end of the day, UM will finish with a better record than ND

Originally posted by PharmD Blue:
For ND fans to think anything better than 5-7 wins this year is absolutely blind homerism. The facts are: as long as ND has BK as the head coach they will never develop the talent they need to. There is not a coach in America who does less with more than BK and he continuously proves it year after year. Just be happy if you make a bowl ND fans.

What is it that makes you want to pointlessly (and pathetically) try to flame/troll a thread that is trying to promote reasonable, defensible, fact based discussion about CFB?

Is it small-penis syndrom?
I've read that many Michigan fans suffer from this condition, but don't really understand it personally.
(See, that's a flame attempt)

 

[nddecker1]

Originally posted by Duhawk47:

Originally posted by nddecker1:
To try and make this even more clear....

There is a reason that when Ruddock first announced he was going to transfer and that he was interested in Michigan, Harbaugh made it clear that he wasn't really going to consider it (if you doubt that at all, go read some of the articles/posts from the Mods at this very site)

Once Harbaugh got a closer look at the abortion that was Michigan's QB position this spring, he doubled back on this deicsion.

Conclusion:
Even Harbaugh isn't excited about Ruddock and isn't bringing Ruddock in because of the talent he has, but rather because of the complete lack of talent in all other options already available to him for the 2015 season

Ruddock is not going to come in and make the Michigan QB position look good in 2015, he's just not capable of it
If you can't figure that out, go back and watch some Iowa replays from the last 2-years......then think about all the talent they had at OL/TE....and look at the level of competition they were playing

decker looks at it far more objectively then I would, and can't argue with much that he's posted (although I can't compare Jake to Gardner as I don't believe I saw Gardner play last year). Yet I've had to watch Rudock go full turtle when under pressure, and then watch CJ have the patience of two more ticks and get the ball downfield. KF isn't that tricky to have two playbooks, one conservative for Jake and another wide open for CJ. It was no secret among the mods that CJ was GDs favorite and choice if he had one. KF thought he was still too much of a slinger, but all that changed as the season progressed.

I'm most interested in the bolded part....were there articles posted alluding to Harbaugh not having interest in the beginning?
It would make sense if there were. We knew Jake was transferring, either to Michigan or Boise St., but nothing formal was ever said for quite some time. Some speculated he was waiting for the B10 office to approve the transfer, maybe it was Harbaugh all along?

The irony of all this is that we (Iowa) hope that with a change of staff and team chemistry, it works out for him. He's a good kid, but his dad is a real pos.

Anyway, enough lurking...can't help as we're just as interested as you guys.

There were several updates on it from Michigan mods all over.

The ones on this site were on the premium board (so you'd have to have a membership to read them) but they boiled down to Ruddock being interested in Michigan but Harbuagh not reciprocating his interest with the main reason being that Ruddock is MUCH more limited than the QBs on Michigan's roster (Morris and Gentry specifically)

But then Harbuagh got to spend spring with the Michigan QBs, and....

That said, there very much also was an evaluation done on the transfer by the Big10 (after Harbaugh had done his 180) which held up the process furhter

So both of those occured

 

[nddecker1]

Quick Post-Spring Update...in case you hadn't been talked out of the "Why won't we be great in 2015?" delusion yet...

Areas of concern ranking:

1.) WR
Wow...the spring really said it all about this position. Not only is there not any sort of something even resembling a playmaker at this position, they're also incredibly unreliable, missing lots of easy catches and creating more issues than they solve. This has to be one of the weakest WR corps in the entire Big10...and that's saying something.

2.) OL
This one is right up there with WR. The assumption was that this group was going to be fixed with age and HARBAUGH! but the reality we saw this spring is that they OL is still struggling mightily to open up any gaps in the run game at all. There were maybe 3 good runs in the entire spring game, and the median run was definitely under 4-5 yards. Beyond that, they were terrible in pass protection, allowing all kinds of pressure to get to the QBs, even though this was a scrimmage against a very vanilla defensive scheme. This may be an even bigger problem than the run blocking, as the new QB won't be nearly as mobile as Gardner was.

3.) QB
This position is only ranked this low because of Ruddock coming in, it would actually be #1 if the players currently on the roster had to start. The main issue here is that Ruddock is a QB who absolutely depends on good protection, and quickly melts down if he doesn't get it...he's not someone who can protect himself or the team at all if the OL allows the opponent into the backfield. If you look at the games where opponents got lots of pressure on Ruddock in 2014 (Iowa St, Minnesota, Tennessee) you would see that he quickly started checking down, throwing the ball away, making mistakes, and sabbotaging the offense overall... to the tune of averaging 90 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT per game and putting up about 15 points per game. If Michigan can keep Ruddock clean, he'll definitely be serviceable (but nothing more) but if he's pressured he'll be a major liability.

4.) RB
There was simply nothing impressive about this position in the spring...at all. Part of that is that Isaac was limited and Green/Johnson weren't really available. However, Smith and Isaac have been pressumed to be the #1/#2 guys here to start the year, and nothing about them said "playmaker" at all. The didn't even show anything that said "solid, upper-level Big10 RB". They showed out at a "mehh, nothing to note here" level. They're not the liability that WR, OL, and QB looked to be, but they didn't look good enough to pick up anyone elses slack either.

5.) TE
Probably the only position on Michigan's offense where the starter would actually start on an above average BCS team. Butt looks to be a TE who can compete with 3-4 other guys for some All-Big10 honors. He's far from a lock for the 1st team and didn't look like an All-American, but he definitely showed the ability to be a player and he'll really benefit from Rudduck and Harbaugh's love of passing to the TE. The depth at this unit is the main concern, with no one else looking like a major player, but that's a fairly minor concern (unless 2-3 TE sets become the base look...then it could be a problem).



It was hard to tell how good your defense was, going up against a group that looked at weak and inconsistent as your offense. That said, they looked pretty solid overall.

My biggest concerns with your defense would be:

1.) Edge rushing
It looked like most of the pressure was coming up the middle, outside of RS Frosh OLB/DE Marshall. The defense that Harbaugh wants to run relies heavily on getting pressure off the edges (Murphy at Stanford, A. Smith at 49ers) so this will need to continue developing.

2.) Speed/athleticism at LB (especially in space)
The LBs didn't get put in many bad spots due to poor QB and WR play, but they did get put in a few and several of them looked slow/plodding trying to react to those plays in space. Sometimes they got bailed out by a WR dropping an easy pass after getting open against them, but it still shows an area that other teams will likely try to exploit.

Overall, the defense looked solid but not "wow" for the most part...however it was hard to tell with the vanilla scheme they were running and the putrid play of the offense they were facing




Thanks for the challenge, hopefully my insights (similar to last years) have helped you to correctly level set your expectations....just like the should have for the 2014 season (when I said 6-7 wins was likely)

 

[goblue31602]

Quick Post-Spring Update...in case you hadn't been talked out of the "Why won't we be great in 2015?" delusion yet...

Areas of concern ranking:

1.) WR
Wow...the spring really said it all about this position. Not only is there not any sort of something even resembling a playmaker at this position, they're also incredibly unreliable, missing lots of easy catches and creating more issues than they solve. This has to be one of the weakest WR corps in the entire Big10...and that's saying something.

2.) OL
This one is right up there with WR. The assumption was that this group was going to be fixed with age and HARBAUGH! but the reality we saw this spring is that they OL is still struggling mightily to open up any gaps in the run game at all. There were maybe 3 good runs in the entire spring game, and the median run was definitely under 4-5 yards. Beyond that, they were terrible in pass protection, allowing all kinds of pressure to get to the QBs, even though this was a scrimmage against a very vanilla defensive scheme. This may be an even bigger problem than the run blocking, as the new QB won't be nearly as mobile as Gardner was.

3.) QB
This position is only ranked this low because of Ruddock coming in, it would actually be #1 if the players currently on the roster had to start. The main issue here is that Ruddock is a QB who absolutely depends on good protection, and quickly melts down if he doesn't get it...he's not someone who can protect himself or the team at all if the OL allows the opponent into the backfield. If you look at the games where opponents got lots of pressure on Ruddock in 2014 (Iowa St, Minnesota, Tennessee) you would see that he quickly started checking down, throwing the ball away, making mistakes, and sabbotaging the offense overall... to the tune of averaging 90 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT per game and putting up about 15 points per game. If Michigan can keep Ruddock clean, he'll definitely be serviceable (but nothing more) but if he's pressured he'll be a major liability.

4.) RB
There was simply nothing impressive about this position in the spring...at all. Part of that is that Isaac was limited and Green/Johnson weren't really available. However, Smith and Isaac have been pressumed to be the #1/#2 guys here to start the year, and nothing about them said "playmaker" at all. The didn't even show anything that said "solid, upper-level Big10 RB". They showed out at a "mehh, nothing to note here" level. They're not the liability that WR, OL, and QB looked to be, but they didn't look good enough to pick up anyone elses slack either.

5.) TE
Probably the only position on Michigan's offense where the starter would actually start on an above average BCS team. Butt looks to be a TE who can compete with 3-4 other guys for some All-Big10 honors. He's far from a lock for the 1st team and didn't look like an All-American, but he definitely showed the ability to be a player and he'll really benefit from Rudduck and Harbaugh's love of passing to the TE. The depth at this unit is the main concern, with no one else looking like a major player, but that's a fairly minor concern (unless 2-3 TE sets become the base look...then it could be a problem).



It was hard to tell how good your defense was, going up against a group that looked at weak and inconsistent as your offense. That said, they looked pretty solid overall.

My biggest concerns with your defense would be:

1.) Edge rushing
It looked like most of the pressure was coming up the middle, outside of RS Frosh OLB/DE Marshall. The defense that Harbaugh wants to run relies heavily on getting pressure off the edges (Murphy at Stanford, A. Smith at 49ers) so this will need to continue developing.

2.) Speed/athleticism at LB (especially in space)
The LBs didn't get put in many bad spots due to poor QB and WR play, but they did get put in a few and several of them looked slow/plodding trying to react to those plays in space. Sometimes they got bailed out by a WR dropping an easy pass after getting open against them, but it still shows an area that other teams will likely try to exploit.

Overall, the defense looked solid but not "wow" for the most part...however it was hard to tell with the vanilla scheme they were running and the putrid play of the offense they were facing




Thanks for the challenge, hopefully my insights (similar to last years) have helped you to correctly level set your expectations....just like the should have for the 2014 season (when I said 6-7 wins was likely)

1) Ty Isaac was hurt most of spring, he'll be an upgrade at RB
2) Our offense was INCREDIBLY vanilla during the Spring Game, and Harbaugh intentionally puts a ton of pressure on the QB to see how he'll respond. The defense knew what they were going to run every play. Not to mention we're only 15 practices into a new regime, and the D is almost always ahead of the O in Spring. They're not perfect, but it's not as dire as you state.
3) Competency from Rudock is all we need. He doesn't need to be a game breaker, just a game manager. We also have Zach Gentry coming in who could potentially be a factor as the season progresses. Next year we'll have Gentry, Malzone, and John O'Korn to choose from.
4) We're looking into 5th year transfers at the WR position, but I do agree that we completely lack playmakers there. Hoke was way too focused on getting big WR's that he left us almost completely devoid of playmakers. He did land Drake Harris (set Michigan records as a Junior), but he's been injury plagued since he got here, and his senior year of HS as well. He can't keep his hamstrings healthy. Brian Cole will be a good one, but he's only a true freshman. Depending on how he's handling his position, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of Jabrill Peppers on offense.

 

[St. Joe Blue 3]

1) Ty Isaac was hurt most of spring, he'll be an upgrade at RB
2) Our offense was INCREDIBLY vanilla during the Spring Game, and Harbaugh intentionally puts a ton of pressure on the QB to see how he'll respond. The defense knew what they were going to run every play. Not to mention we're only 15 practices into a new regime, and the D is almost always ahead of the O in Spring. They're not perfect, but it's not as dire as you state.
3) Competency from Rudock is all we need. He doesn't need to be a game breaker, just a game manager. We also have Zach Gentry coming in who could potentially be a factor as the season progresses. Next year we'll have Gentry, Malzone, and John O'Korn to choose from.
4) We're looking into 5th year transfers at the WR position, but I do agree that we completely lack playmakers there. Hoke was way too focused on getting big WR's that he left us almost completely devoid of playmakers. He did land Drake Harris (set Michigan records as a Junior), but he's been injury plagued since he got here, and his senior year of HS as well. He can't keep his hamstrings healthy. Brian Cole will be a good one, but he's only a true freshman. Depending on how he's handling his position, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of Jabrill Peppers on offense.

AGP

Agree ... I'm betting we see Peppers inserted on offense as a potential playmaker. Can't wait!

 

[nddecker1]

1) Ty Isaac was hurt most of spring, he'll be an upgrade at RB
2) Our offense was INCREDIBLY vanilla during the Spring Game, and Harbaugh intentionally puts a ton of pressure on the QB to see how he'll respond. The defense knew what they were going to run every play. Not to mention we're only 15 practices into a new regime, and the D is almost always ahead of the O in Spring. They're not perfect, but it's not as dire as you state.
3) Competency from Rudock is all we need. He doesn't need to be a game breaker, just a game manager. We also have Zach Gentry coming in who could potentially be a factor as the season progresses. Next year we'll have Gentry, Malzone, and John O'Korn to choose from.
4) We're looking into 5th year transfers at the WR position, but I do agree that we completely lack playmakers there. Hoke was way too focused on getting big WR's that he left us almost completely devoid of playmakers. He did land Drake Harris (set Michigan records as a Junior), but he's been injury plagued since he got here, and his senior year of HS as well. He can't keep his hamstrings healthy. Brian Cole will be a good one, but he's only a true freshman. Depending on how he's handling his position, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of Jabrill Peppers on offense.

1.) There is nothing Isaac has done at any point in CFB that has said he's a special talent. He doesn't look bad, just not great either.

At USC he was 5th, yes 5th string on their RB depth chart and was barely even getting mop up duty minutes until there were 2+ injuries at the RB position. Not only was Isaac 5th string, but he was the #2 Frosh RB, clearly sitting behind Justin Davis. Davis is a good RB, but he's not an elite talent that could hide a really good player his own age behind him...and that's who was ABOVE ISAAC on the depth chart, despite being his own age/class.

Isaac didn't show anything special at USC and then was healthy for the spring game and didn't show anything even close to special.

I don't think he'll be a terrible RB prospect, but there is absolutely no evidence at all to suggest he'll be a meaningful upgrade from Green, Smith, or Johnson (if he was available).


2.) Yes, it was...and it will likely stay that way. You have new coaches, teaching new ideas, to a new QB, a new/patchwork OL, and possibly a new RB as well...that's pretty much a recipe that guarantees a vanilla offense for most of the season.

What actual evidence would you point to, in order to say "our offense isn't as dire as you say"?

What position group did I not fairly evaluate? What reasoning do you have beyond "HARBAUGH!" and "I believe everyone will be different players this year" to go by?

I'd love to hear it...because your offense looks flat out pathetic to me


3.) Who is making plays for your offense if your QB is only a serviceable game manager, your RBs are only "mehh", and your WR position is an absolute abortion? Do you think you'll be winning a lot of games by scoring less than 14 points?

You might want to check how the 2012 Michigan State team turned out. That team had offensive talent and experience that was as good (and likely better) than the 2015 Michigan team will...plus they had they had the #4 overall defense and great coaching....6 win team

You need someone to make plays for your offense, and it certainly won't be Ruddock.

And Ruddock is only a "serviceable game manager" when he's completely protected and has an effective run game. Go ahead and look at his games against the power-houses of Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Minnesota (just last season) if you want to see what happens when he feels pressure. ***SPOILER ALTER*** He completely falls apart and sinks the offense (which is why he was benched at Iowa...he's a 2nd string player for a reason)


4.) You may be looking at 5th year WRs...but they don't appear to be looking back. There aren't many 5th year WRs worth anything out there right now. Really the only one who had proven anything was Lucien from UCLA, and he just announced he's going to Arizona State (despite having interest from Michigan)

I wouldn't count on getting much meaningful help at WR from 5th years unless someone unexpected just up and decides to transfer.

I would assume you'll use Peppers on offense...but how much of an impact will he really have? He's a RS Frosh who didn't play a huge amount of WR in high school, who will be splitting practice time on defense (at best). That's not the description of a player you want to be counting on for major contributions (on either side of the ball, if you're splitting his time)




The reality here is that there is no reason to think that every position on offense (other than TE) is a weakness and is at a below average level just in the Big10....or worse



It's very hard to see this offense scoring many points on any defenses with a pulse.

 

[goblue31602]

1.) There is nothing Isaac has done at any point in CFB that has said he's a special talent. He doesn't look bad, just not great either.

At USC he was 5th, yes 5th string on their RB depth chart and was barely even getting mop up duty minutes until there were 2+ injuries at the RB position. Not only was Isaac 5th string, but he was the #2 Frosh RB, clearly sitting behind Justin Davis. Davis is a good RB, but he's not an elite talent that could hide a really good player his own age behind him...and that's who was ABOVE ISAAC on the depth chart, despite being his own age/class.

Isaac didn't show anything special at USC and then was healthy for the spring game and didn't show anything even close to special.

I don't think he'll be a terrible RB prospect, but there is absolutely no evidence at all to suggest he'll be a meaningful upgrade from Green, Smith, or Johnson (if he was available).


2.) Yes, it was...and it will likely stay that way. You have new coaches, teaching new ideas, to a new QB, a new/patchwork OL, and possibly a new RB as well...that's pretty much a recipe that guarantees a vanilla offense for most of the season.

What actual evidence would you point to, in order to say "our offense isn't as dire as you say"?

What position group did I not fairly evaluate? What reasoning do you have beyond "HARBAUGH!" and "I believe everyone will be different players this year" to go by?

I'd love to hear it...because your offense looks flat out pathetic to me


3.) Who is making plays for your offense if your QB is only a serviceable game manager, your RBs are only "mehh", and your WR position is an absolute abortion? Do you think you'll be winning a lot of games by scoring less than 14 points?

You might want to check how the 2012 Michigan State team turned out. That team had offensive talent and experience that was as good (and likely better) than the 2015 Michigan team will...plus they had they had the #4 overall defense and great coaching....6 win team

You need someone to make plays for your offense, and it certainly won't be Ruddock.

And Ruddock is only a "serviceable game manager" when he's completely protected and has an effective run game. Go ahead and look at his games against the power-houses of Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Minnesota (just last season) if you want to see what happens when he feels pressure. ***SPOILER ALTER*** He completely falls apart and sinks the offense (which is why he was benched at Iowa...he's a 2nd string player for a reason)


4.) You may be looking at 5th year WRs...but they don't appear to be looking back. There aren't many 5th year WRs worth anything out there right now. Really the only one who had proven anything was Lucien from UCLA, and he just announced he's going to Arizona State (despite having interest from Michigan)

I wouldn't count on getting much meaningful help at WR from 5th years unless someone unexpected just up and decides to transfer.

I would assume you'll use Peppers on offense...but how much of an impact will he really have? He's a RS Frosh who didn't play a huge amount of WR in high school, who will be splitting practice time on defense (at best). That's not the description of a player you want to be counting on for major contributions (on either side of the ball, if you're splitting his time)




The reality here is that there is no reason to think that every position on offense (other than TE) is a weakness and is at a below average level just in the Big10....or worse



It's very hard to see this offense scoring many points on any defenses with a pulse.

So I give you credit for paying close attention, but you didn't pay close enough attention. Do you know how many carries Isaac had in the spring game? One. He was hurt most of spring, and was not 100% for the game, he only had one carry. All accounts from last year were that he was our best RB in practice, but he was redshirting and was unable to play. And Isaac was a true freshman in his one year at USC, where he still averaged 5.9 yards per carry. So I'm not sure why that matters that he was down on the depth chart. And Justin Davis was ranked #62 in that class, it's not like he was a scrub.

Second, do you know how we split up the teams for the spring game? It was a draft, so essentially the first team offense was split between the two teams (the D was too, obviously, but we're deep along the DL). We have about 7 serviceable (or better) OL. Most of the holes that the defense exploited were either directly through some of our younger backups, or through guys that may have been playing out of position. The spring game was more of a competition than it was a showcase of what we are capable of. Now, we're not setting any offensive records this year, but it's not as bad as it looked.

I think you unfairly evaluated our RB's. The combination of Green, Isaac, and Smith (with the potential for Johnson to come back, and Higdon to enter the mix) give us some options for production now that we have a competent OL coach. This team should make some big strides this Fall with a large quantity of returning players, and a coaching staff with a whole hell of a lot more credentials than the previous staff. We return our top 3 running backs and add a former 5* and a very solid runner in Karan Higdon. To add to that, we return our entire OL who was playing better by the end of last year. They'll enter this year with a new OL coach who is considered one of the best OL teachers in the country. I think it's funny that you're assuming no improvements will be made, and somehow 5 returning OL are somehow a "patchwork" OL.

Look, if Jim Harbaugh can come in year 1, and ride Alex Smith to a 13-3 regular season record, and a muffed punt away from a Super Bowl appearance, I think he can find a way to win some games at Michigan with a game manager at QB. I don't predict that we win the B1G, but this should not be a below average B1G team.

 

[TheDecker]

So I give you credit for paying close attention, but you didn't pay close enough attention. Do you know how many carries Isaac had in the spring game? One. He was hurt most of spring, and was not 100% for the game, he only had one carry. All accounts from last year were that he was our best RB in practice, but he was redshirting and was unable to play. And Isaac was a true freshman in his one year at USC, where he still averaged 5.9 yards per carry. So I'm not sure why that matters that he was down on the depth chart. And Justin Davis was ranked #62 in that class, it's not like he was a scrub.

Second, do you know how we split up the teams for the spring game? It was a draft, so essentially the first team offense was split between the two teams (the D was too, obviously, but we're deep along the DL). We have about 7 serviceable (or better) OL. Most of the holes that the defense exploited were either directly through some of our younger backups, or through guys that may have been playing out of position. The spring game was more of a competition than it was a showcase of what we are capable of. Now, we're not setting any offensive records this year, but it's not as bad as it looked.

I think you unfairly evaluated our RB's. The combination of Green, Isaac, and Smith (with the potential for Johnson to come back, and Higdon to enter the mix) give us some options for production now that we have a competent OL coach. This team should make some big strides this Fall with a large quantity of returning players, and a coaching staff with a whole hell of a lot more credentials than the previous staff. We return our top 3 running backs and add a former 5* and a very solid runner in Karan Higdon. To add to that, we return our entire OL who was playing better by the end of last year. They'll enter this year with a new OL coach who is considered one of the best OL teachers in the country. I think it's funny that you're assuming no improvements will be made, and somehow 5 returning OL are somehow a "patchwork" OL.

Look, if Jim Harbaugh can come in year 1, and ride Alex Smith to a 13-3 regular season record, and a muffed punt away from a Super Bowl appearance, I think he can find a way to win some games at Michigan with a game manager at QB. I don't predict that we win the B1G, but this should not be a below average B1G team.

The reports also held that Green has rebuilt his body and was going to be a monster in 2014...so...
The reality is that special freshman RBs don't get put as 5th string on the depth chart, they just don't. Look at Chubb (UGA), Freeman (Oregon), Cook (FSU), etc... Freeman even came in behind 5* STUD Tyner, and still took the #1 spot.

Davis is a good player (not great, but good), but the very fact that Isaac was trapped behind him on the depth chart (as well as 3-4 other people) shows that Isaac simply isn't a special player. He may not be bad, he's just not the kind of player that makes teams worry.


Second, yes I know you split the teams up like that...and the reality is that the defense was split up like that too. I know that you want to believe:
"We secretly have 5+ good OLs, who have just never shown they're any good at all against any team with a pulse the last 2+ years, nor in either of those spring games, nor in the most recent spring game"
The problem is, that's how ridiculous your belief in something that's never been shown on the field at all is...

Quite simply, your previous coaching staffs could identify OL talent nor could they develop it, so you have had and continue to have a complete and total lack of competency on the OL (and it showed up yet again in your spring game, against a defense littered with 2nd string players)



The reality is that you can get better, but you're not going to see some magic jump from your OL/RB group. You're talking about a group that "improved in 2014"...to the following stats against teams with a pulse (ND, MSU, OSU, Minnesota, Utah, Penn St)

90 Yards Rushing
2.75 YPC
0.75 TD
3.5 Sacks Allowed
35% 3rd Down Conv.

Quite simply, those just aren't numbers that say "Our OL is competing effectively against teams with a pulse"







I'm sorry, but Michigan is an average Big10 team in terms of roster talent (Below OSU, MSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota at least) and you don't have an effective game manager at QB...you have a guy who can game manage some times but completely fall apart and torpedos the offense other times....which is why he was bench on a below average Iowa team



You offense simiply lacks any real difference making talent, at every position

 

[goblue31602]

The reports also held that Green has rebuilt his body and was going to be a monster in 2014...so...
The reality is that special freshman RBs don't get put as 5th string on the depth chart, they just don't. Look at Chubb (UGA), Freeman (Oregon), Cook (FSU), etc... Freeman even came in behind 5* STUD Tyner, and still took the #1 spot.

Davis is a good player (not great, but good), but the very fact that Isaac was trapped behind him on the depth chart (as well as 3-4 other people) shows that Isaac simply isn't a special player. He may not be bad, he's just not the kind of player that makes teams worry.


Second, yes I know you split the teams up like that...and the reality is that the defense was split up like that too. I know that you want to believe:
"We secretly have 5+ good OLs, who have just never shown they're any good at all against any team with a pulse the last 2+ years, nor in either of those spring games, nor in the most recent spring game"
The problem is, that's how ridiculous your belief in something that's never been shown on the field at all is...

Quite simply, your previous coaching staffs could identify OL talent nor could they develop it, so you have had and continue to have a complete and total lack of competency on the OL (and it showed up yet again in your spring game, against a defense littered with 2nd string players)



The reality is that you can get better, but you're not going to see some magic jump from your OL/RB group. You're talking about a group that "improved in 2014"...to the following stats against teams with a pulse (ND, MSU, OSU, Minnesota, Utah, Penn St)

90 Yards Rushing
2.75 YPC
0.75 TD
3.5 Sacks Allowed
35% 3rd Down Conv.

Quite simply, those just aren't numbers that say "Our OL is competing effectively against teams with a pulse"







I'm sorry, but Michigan is an average Big10 team in terms of roster talent (Below OSU, MSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota at least) and you don't have an effective game manager at QB...you have a guy who can game manage some times but completely fall apart and torpedos the offense other times....which is why he was bench on a below average Iowa team



You offense simiply lacks any real difference making talent, at every position

Wait, you're talking about Derrick Green, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry before going down with a broken clavicle, right? Sure, he didn't do much against ND, but we also couldn't open any holes. That should start to change this year, our OL should be one of the most improved units on the team.

So, what happens with a freshman running back can be precisely extrapolated for the next 4 years? So the fact that he was 5th string as a freshman means it's impossible for him to ever improve?

Bad at identifying talent on the OL?
Logan Tuley Tillman -4* ND offer
Kyle Kalis - 5* ND offer
Mason Cole - 4* ND offer
Eric Magnuson - 4* ND offer

So is ND bad at identifying talent as well?

I'm not sure how many times I can explain that we're going from one of the worst OL coaches to one of the best. I know you keep bringing up past performances, but those were with another AWFUL OL coach. We have fixed that issue, and he's only had 15 practices to work. To assume we won't improve along the OL with an OL coach who is WORLDS better than our old one, is just stupid. If Drevno can fix the OL, and give the running backs an opportunity to make it to the line of scrimmage without already having 2 guys in their face will make a massive difference.

I already explained the spring game, but you just plug your ears and say what you're going to say. We have a SOLID 2 deep along the DL, and we blitzed LB's all day against a VERY vanilla OL and playcalling scheme. Those things will all change once the scores start to count. Again, we're not setting any records this year and we're going to have to hold the other team to low point totals, but this team is finally trending upward, thanks to a HC and a staff that actually get it.

BTW, you get banned already?

 

[CancunLive]

He's just taking a break to focus on altar boys.

 

[TheDecker]

Wait, you're talking about Derrick Green, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry before going down with a broken clavicle, right? Sure, he didn't do much against ND, but we also couldn't open any holes. That should start to change this year, our OL should be one of the most improved units on the team.

So, what happens with a freshman running back can be precisely extrapolated for the next 4 years? So the fact that he was 5th string as a freshman means it's impossible for him to ever improve?

Bad at identifying talent on the OL?
Logan Tuley Tillman -4* ND offer
Kyle Kalis - 5* ND offer
Mason Cole - 4* ND offer
Eric Magnuson - 4* ND offer

So is ND bad at identifying talent as well?

I'm not sure how many times I can explain that we're going from one of the worst OL coaches to one of the best. I know you keep bringing up past performances, but those were with another AWFUL OL coach. We have fixed that issue, and he's only had 15 practices to work. To assume we won't improve along the OL with an OL coach who is WORLDS better than our old one, is just stupid. If Drevno can fix the OL, and give the running backs an opportunity to make it to the line of scrimmage without already having 2 guys in their face will make a massive difference.

I already explained the spring game, but you just plug your ears and say what you're going to say. We have a SOLID 2 deep along the DL, and we blitzed LB's all day against a VERY vanilla OL and playcalling scheme. Those things will all change once the scores start to count. Again, we're not setting any records this year and we're going to have to hold the other team to low point totals, but this team is finally trending upward, thanks to a HC and a staff that actually get it.

BTW, you get banned already?

1.) Wow, talk about a meaningless stat...

Green averaged 8+ YPC against Applichian State, Miami (OH) and Rutgers...congrats. He ran flat over TERRIBLE teams
Against Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Utah (the 3 teams with a puls that he played, and none were truly elite):
33 total Carries
90 total Yards
0 total TD

On a per game basis, that breaks down to...
11 Carries per game
30 Yards per game
0 TD per game
2.7 YPC

You can see why I see him as a WELL BELOW AVERAGE runningback, who likely wouldn't be in the 2-Deep on any Top25 teams



2.) No, what he did as a frosh doesn't mean he can never improve. However, it's clear from players like Chubb, Freeman, Pernine, Gurley and even Elliott, Gordon, Connoner, etc....special RBs aren't relagated to 5th string and #2 in their own class...they just aren't.

I think it's likely that Isaac turns out to be a solid, maybe even good RB (eventually), but he was nothing even close to special the last time he took a CFB snap...and he hasn't taken a single one in almost 2 years

Quite simply, you don't have anything at all even resembling "special" at the RB position



3.) On your OL...

Notre Dame didn't actively recruit Magnuson, whether or not he lists an offer. Sorry.

Tuley-Tillman was always a "high risk, high reward" guy, and it doesn't really look like he's made much (if any) progress from high school. He could still be good some day, but it's clear he's still a mile away from that.

Kalis is the classic example of "5* BUST!!"...the reality is that is happens. Everyone wanted Kalis 4 years ago, right now he couldn't get an offer to go to small schools in P5 Conferences. The reality is that he has feet of cement and a brain made of mush...not good qualities for an OL (even on the interior)

Go ahead and try to list your starting OL and explain how that OL is going to be dominant unit that can be the focus for an offense....because that's what it will have to be, as all opponent will be stacking 8+ in the box as Ruddock can't stretch them AT ALL and your WR core will scare ABSOLUTELY NO ONE (including teams like Indiana and Purdue)

You're looking at:
LT -- Cole --(undersized OT, has solid athleticism and technique, but he doesn't have the size or power to be dominant yet)
LG -- Kalis -- (simply not looking good, never has at any point in CFB...but he's best remaining option...sadly)
C -- Glasgow -- (best position is guard, but he's a serviceable center)
RG -- Braden -- (new staff clearly moving him inside, hard to say if it will work, he has the size and it will hide his lack of foot-speed and balance, but can he bend and deal with interior players at his height? Learning curve?)
RT -- Magnuson -- (simply lacks ideal physical traits, he's a solid player but was moved inside last year due to athleticism/foot-speed but then was removed from the lineup due to a lack of size/strenght...just not a high quality OL)

You can keep going with "Our new coaching will magically transform this position" but that's not been the case for them previously in CFB
Drevno took multiple years to get USC's OL working, and the reality is that it's still not in a great place.
Stanford took more than a couple years to fix the Stanford OL

You're not likely to see some magic turn-around on the OL just due to improving your coaching...due to lacking really quality OLs, and the ones you have lacking techniques and habits that take quite a bit of time to develop


4.) You don't have anything special on the DL either...and you certainly don't have 2-Deep worth of special players that makes it so that your mixed OL is really going up against a starting quality DL on both sides of the game. You don't really have any proven DEs at all, and while you have guys that are good at DT, it's not like you're running into a bunch of sure-fire NFL draft picks

Also, watching you spring game...both your O-Scheme and D-Scheme were very vanilla. You weren't doing a lot of interesting blitzes (not sure where you're getting that idea), usually you were just rushing 4-5, and when it was 5 you were mainly bringing a fairly standard blitz from an LB

And you're NOT going to be moving away from a very vanilla, predictable O-Scheme during the 2015 season...sorry:
You have a QB who is learning your scheme for the first time, and he hasn't even started working with the team yet
You have and OL that's got 3-4 players starting in new positions from what they've started at extensively in the past
You have a WR unit that doesn't scare anybody, isn't going to spread a defense, and will result with a lot of safeties in the box
You have coaches who are known for running a conservative scheme, until they have a QB and offense that they REALLY know and trust

You're in for a very vanilla, very conservative, very limited offense...and it's going to run into a lot of 8-9 Man Fronts and even more blitzes




I love how Michigan fans are "We're going to better everywhere, players who have never showen anything are suddenly going to become tough, efficient, and powerful...we're basically going to be the slightly less talented/explosive version of the Glory Day UM offenses"

I'm sorry, but your offense is one of the worst in the Big10, from a talent and production perspective...it's quite simply not good, and will lose you more than a few games

 

[nddecker1]

Just to toss a little more realism and facts your way...for the "we'll rely on an effective power run game for offense" group from Michigan....let's take a quick look at that

Michigan returns 4/5 OL starters from 2014 and every major RB contributor (though Johnson likely won't be available)

Against opponents that ended with 8+ wins (not a high standard, so teams with a pulse) Michigan's run game ageraged:
35 Carries (per game)
105 Yards (per game)
3.1 YPC
1.25 TD

That's a pretty weak line of stats, against teams with a pulse
These are the type of teams that Michigan will need to be able to run the ball against, if they want to be better than a 5-7 win team this year.

Opponents that Michigan will face in 2015 that will likely be in this range:
1.) Ohio State
2.) Michigan State
3.) Minnesota
4.) Utah
5.) Penn State
6.) BYU
7.) Rutgers
There won't eb a lot of wins in that group unless Michigan shows something in the run game that they haven't shown on the field at all yet (with current players)

Michigan isn't going to get a lot of production out of the passing game with the available QB/WR units...so the run game will need to much more than "serviceable" for the offense overall to be "just serviceable"...and right now the run game is nowhere near that

 

[nddecker1]

Just for reference...

Notre Dame also returns 4/5 starters on the OL and almost all major contributors at RB

Notre Dame's rushing stats against 8+ win teams in 2014:
(Be sure to remember most Michigan fans would consider ND a "finnesse, pass oriented, spread offense" as opposed the the Michigan "man-ball, power football")

Notre Dame average:
35 Carries (per game)
165 Yards (per game)
4.75 YPC
2.0 TD (per game)

So a "spread, passing based, finnesse offense" on a "decent but nothing at all special" 8-5 ND team ran the ball as often as the "run oriented, power football offense" for Michigan....and they ran it was MUCH GREATER efficency, production, and scoring results

Just think about that...

 

[nddecker1]

For a little perspective on what Michigan fans can expect out of Jake Ruddock and the offense when they're rushing for less than 150 yards per game...

In the 14 games where Iowa rushed for less than 150 yards, Rudduck managed to throw for 250+ yards (just enough to get the offense to the average for a CFB team) only 4 times (against Ball State, Northern Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin). Furthermore, Ruddock only broke 200 yards in 7/17 of these games.

In 4 games mentioned above where Ruddock passed for 250+, only 1 opponent was an 8+ win team.
In the 7 games mentioned above where Ruddock passed for 200+, only 4 opponents were 8+ win teams.

Ruddock's average stats at Iowa, when they rushed for less than 150 yards:
32 Attempts
195 Yards
57% Comp
1.35 TD
0.75 INT

The Iowa offense overall in these games averaged...
21 Points per Game
Broke 30+ points 4 times
Failed to break 20 points 7 times

Iowa was 5-9 in these games under Jake Ruddock (with 3 of those 5 wins coming over Ball State, Northern Iowa, and Northwestern)




The reality here is, if Michigan's offense isn't running the ball effectively (150+ yards, 4.5+ YPC) Jake Ruddock quickly becomes a handcuff to the offense, usually holding it below 400 yards and 20 points....and losing his team the game

As we reviewed in the above posts, Michigan has barely been averaging 100 yards rushing against opponents with a pulse

These realities don't bode especially well for Michigan in 2015, against the opponents who are 8+ win caliber teams