Well, we haven't played in 2+ weeks, but everyone else have, and a lot has happened. Some of my observations, for what they are worth, follow.
Illinois--After some early season struggles, the Illini are playing very well, due in part to some adjustments by Brad Underwood. Illinois had been playing 4 guards around Kofi Cockburn (or Giorgi Bezhanishvili, his back-up), or Cockburn and Bezhanishvili together with 3 guards, and getting beat by teams like OSU, Maryland and Rutgers which have multiple wings to physically defend against Ayo Dosemnu and the smaller players, and perimeter bigs who can bring Cockburn out and/or put him in pick and roll. Underwood has inserted 6'6" Holy Cross transfer Jacob Grandison into the transfer into the lineup, and he has provided a physical, "glue" presence. While Grandison does not put up without big-time "counting stats," he moves the ball, sets screens, defends and rebounds, and funnels the ball to Ayo Dosemnu and Cockburn, Illinois' two stars. To be fair though, Illinois hasn't faced teams like the above which give it trouble on the offensive end save for Indiana which, not surprisingly, gave Illinois trouble on the offensive end. Going forward, Illinois is a very dangerous team, one capable of reaching the Final Four if Dosemnu and Cockburn are featured and the supplemental pieces like Trent Frazier and the freshmen guards (Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller) continue to play well, but Illinois, because of roster construction, is likely more match-up dependent than some other of the nation's top teams.
Indiana--From the beginning of the season, Indiana has been a muck it up team, strong defensively, and well, not on offense. From my vantage point, it is hard to even understand what Archie Miller is trying to accomplish on offense other than to throw the ball to the mid-post and have the recipient shoot or get fouled--the Hoosiers' spacing is awful, and outside shooting is largely not even looked for. Trayce Jackson-Davis is an outstanding player, and former Michigan target Race Thompson is a a solid, if undersized, post player with some upside, but perimeter contributions have been few and far between. In addition, for a team which gets to the free throw line a lot (17th in the country), Indiana shoots it badly from the charity stripe (293rd), which takes away from the best part of its attack. The two wins over Iowa put IU solidly on the right side of the bubble for now--that said, a team with Indiana's offensive woes needs to bring it every night on the defensive end and avoid losses to teams like Northwestern and MSU which could put the bubble in view again.
Iowa--I'm not usually a fan of cute nicknames, but I have to confess that "Franbruary" is growing on me. Another year, another Iowa meltdown in February/March after a promising start. Iowa is missing C.J. Fredrick who, while a role player, is a 50% 3 point shooter and likely the best perimeter defender on the team (wow, is that a low bar), so that hurts. Still though, Iowa is horrible--absolutely horrible--on the defensive end, and we've gotten to the point (which we often seem to later in the season) where even Iowa's sterling offense often doesn't make up for giving up wide open shots to opponents at every level. Certainly, Iowa is a scary team to face--when Luka Garza, Joe Weiskamp, Jordan Bohannon, etc., all fine to fantastic offensive players, are hot at the same time, Iowa can outscore virtually anyone--and thus with the right draw, Iowa can go a ways in the tournament. That said, Iowa is also a prime candidate for early exit in your NCAA tournament pool. One more note--this will not be a popular opinion, but if I was given a vote (and I never will be), Garza is not my POY--you can't be as ridiculously bad as Garza is on the defensive end and be the POY in a sport where you have to play both ends (my older daughter thinks Alex Ovechkin is an exception to this rule, but she's a Caps fan).
Maryland--No bigs, no point guard, erratic outside shooting equals difficulty scoring. Yet Maryland has some big time wins (at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota (the Gophers' only home loss to date) and Purdue, because against everyone except Michigan, Maryland really defends with its group of interchangeable wings. Despite its overall 10-9 record, Maryland remains a bubble team because of its wins and the fact that after tonight's OSU game, the tough part of Maryland's schedule is in the rear view mirror--the last 7 games include 2 with Nebraska, at Northwestern, MSU Minnesota and PSU, all at home, and at Rutgers. Maryland may be too inconsistent to put together a string of wins, but it's certainly possible. And with a NET ranking currently standing at 39, some consistency would likely land the Terps on the right side of the bubble.
Michigan--Obviously, nothing new.
Michigan State--See Maryland for a synopsis. Unlike Maryland though, MSU does not: (a) have good to great wins; (b) defend at quite the same level as the Terps, or (c) have the easy part of its schedule coming up. There are some highly touted players on this team (Henry, Watts, Houser, Langford, etc.), but none are playing well at all. If MSU suddenly turns things around in a big way, there might barely be enough time left. However, for a team which has exactly one non-Nebraska Big Ten win thus far, and not a single game left where it is currently favored to win, the chances of this appear to be very slim.
Minnesota--The opposite of Maryland and Michigan State--point guard and center are the strengths, with wings who have been unproductive andIt's a inefficient. Minnesota hasn't won on the road, and generally hasn't been even competitve there; when they finally were against Rutgers this past Wednesday, the Gophers had an epic meltdown late in the game. Watching Minnesota when things are going bad is like watching a snowball running downhill--the wings (especially Gabe Kalscheur, Both Gach and Jamal Mashburn, Jr.) fire up bricks, point guard Markus Carr decides to talke the entire offensive burden on himself and hoist up horrific shots, big Liam Robins lets himself be taken out of the game, and very bad things happen. And Carr's defensive effort varies by game, from intense when he played Michigan in Minneapolis to indifferent the last few outings. When Minnesota is clicking, i.e., when the wings give them something offensively, Robbins stays out of foul trouble, and Carr decides not to play hero ball every time down the floor, this can be a very dangerous team. The fairly easy remaining schedule gives the Gophers a chance to put themselves in good shape...or prove that the early season wins against Iowa, OSU and Michigan were outliers. With a current NET ranking at 55, Minnesota needs it to be the former.
Nebraska--No continuity, not a ton of talent and little team chemistry, and COVID issues to boot--this is a year for Nebraska to just finish, and hope that a good recruiting year and some experience playing together leads to better things next season. If Nebraska wins a BT game this year, it will be a surprise; two or more would be a shock.
Northwestern--Remember when Northwestern was 3-0 in the BT with wins over traditional conference blue bloods MSU, IU and OSU? That was a mirage, brought on in part by the now discredited thought that MSU was going to be good. At the time, Northwestern looked like a team with shooters all over the court; now, with its guard play at an untenable level, thus impacting the open looks for guys like Miller Kopp and Pete Nance, nothing is going well on either end of the court. Boo Buie, for example, score 55 points in Northwestern's first 3 BT games, and had an average efficiency ranking in those games of 125.8 (100 is average); since that point, Buie has 59 total points in the last 9 games combined, with an average efficiency of 65.9. The Cats have at least been competitive in their last 3 games (at PSU, Rutgers and at Purdue), so there's that. However, barring something unexpected, Northwestern is going to be playing on the first day of the Big Ten tournament. Virtually everyone is slated to be back next season, and the recruiting class is pretty good, so maybe there's a foundation for what is, right now, a very young team.
Ohio State--A really tough team, one which has overcome issues with lack of size. Part of this is that E.J. Liddell is terrific, and Kyle Young is extremely physical and crafty around the basket. Part is that OSU has had multiple players step up from game to game, getting contributions from deep on the roster than anyone else in the conference. And part of it is that Chris Holtman has done a great job melding a team into one which exceeds the talets of its individual players. I still don't know what OSU will do in crunch time against great teams--there aren't perimeter guys who can get theirs, nor a big guy who can just overpower the opposition, so the ceiling may be limited to some extent. That said, the Buckeyes are playing very close to that ceiling.
Penn State--Penn Sate, like many of the other teams below the top echelon of the conference, has roster holes and erratic play. The Lions compound this by an offensive approach from the pre-analytics era--lots of long, contested 2s. To their credit though, Jim Ferry's crew plays VERY HARD, get a lot of little things done, and have thus remained very competitive. Seth Lundy, PSU's 6'6" combo forward, who has been erratic, is a key on offense, as is a continuation of the surprisingly good play of big John Harrar. PSU is another team with a schedule made for catching up on the win/loss record down the stretch, and if it can do so, PSU's high computer rankings (currently 28 on NET) should putthe Lions on the right side of the bubble.
Purdue--It is a true complement to Matt Painter that this team is an upper tier Big Ten team in a conference this tough. The Boilers are very young, with 4 freshman in the rotation, have only one all-conference type in Tevion Williams, a guy who shares time at center because he can't play together with promising freshman Zach Edey, and only 2 reliable perimeter threats in Sasha Stefanovic (who missed several games) and freshman Brandon Newman. Purdue has Painter though, and he has done a fantastic job. This is a program on the rise in the future, what with a very young team and a needed top 50 guy at a position of need (power forward) coming in. This year, it is likely to be dancing.
Rutgers-- In a league with a lot of teams going hot and cold, no team has exemplified the trend more than Rutgers, which started the season with 6 wins, then lost 6 of its next 7, and then, on the verge of implosion, rallied to win its last 4 straight. It's usually how the offense plays which tells the tale, as defensively, Rutgers is great in several categories including blocks and turnovers forced. Offensively though, Rutgers has stretches where it couldn't throw a ball in the water from the beach, and that includes even freebies, where the Knights shoot an abysmal 60.1% as a team, good for 344th in the nation. Ron Harper, Jr is the scorer, Geo Baker the big shot guy, and Jacob Young the distributor, but the key to Rutgers is center Myles Johnson, who is an elite defender and offensive rebounder, an essential component on a team which misses as often as does Rutgers. Johnson is very susceptible to foul trouble, and when he's not in, Rutgers is very vulnerable.
Wisconsin--The Badgers have not played well at all since being pounded in Ann Arbor. Nate Reuvers has regressed, and is now coming off the bench. Brad Davison has also regressed, shooting a woeful 24% from inside the arc, and D'Mitrik Trice has seemed to feel the lack of help. For once, Wisconsin actually has the most difficult schedule among the Big ten's upper tier teams, with Iowa twice, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue left. Last year, Wisconsin reeled off 8 in a row to end the season and tie for the BT championship. A similar run this season seems extremely unlikely under any circumstances--unless the Badgers run off a string of 40+% games from3 like last year, it seems impossible.
Illinois--After some early season struggles, the Illini are playing very well, due in part to some adjustments by Brad Underwood. Illinois had been playing 4 guards around Kofi Cockburn (or Giorgi Bezhanishvili, his back-up), or Cockburn and Bezhanishvili together with 3 guards, and getting beat by teams like OSU, Maryland and Rutgers which have multiple wings to physically defend against Ayo Dosemnu and the smaller players, and perimeter bigs who can bring Cockburn out and/or put him in pick and roll. Underwood has inserted 6'6" Holy Cross transfer Jacob Grandison into the transfer into the lineup, and he has provided a physical, "glue" presence. While Grandison does not put up without big-time "counting stats," he moves the ball, sets screens, defends and rebounds, and funnels the ball to Ayo Dosemnu and Cockburn, Illinois' two stars. To be fair though, Illinois hasn't faced teams like the above which give it trouble on the offensive end save for Indiana which, not surprisingly, gave Illinois trouble on the offensive end. Going forward, Illinois is a very dangerous team, one capable of reaching the Final Four if Dosemnu and Cockburn are featured and the supplemental pieces like Trent Frazier and the freshmen guards (Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller) continue to play well, but Illinois, because of roster construction, is likely more match-up dependent than some other of the nation's top teams.
Indiana--From the beginning of the season, Indiana has been a muck it up team, strong defensively, and well, not on offense. From my vantage point, it is hard to even understand what Archie Miller is trying to accomplish on offense other than to throw the ball to the mid-post and have the recipient shoot or get fouled--the Hoosiers' spacing is awful, and outside shooting is largely not even looked for. Trayce Jackson-Davis is an outstanding player, and former Michigan target Race Thompson is a a solid, if undersized, post player with some upside, but perimeter contributions have been few and far between. In addition, for a team which gets to the free throw line a lot (17th in the country), Indiana shoots it badly from the charity stripe (293rd), which takes away from the best part of its attack. The two wins over Iowa put IU solidly on the right side of the bubble for now--that said, a team with Indiana's offensive woes needs to bring it every night on the defensive end and avoid losses to teams like Northwestern and MSU which could put the bubble in view again.
Iowa--I'm not usually a fan of cute nicknames, but I have to confess that "Franbruary" is growing on me. Another year, another Iowa meltdown in February/March after a promising start. Iowa is missing C.J. Fredrick who, while a role player, is a 50% 3 point shooter and likely the best perimeter defender on the team (wow, is that a low bar), so that hurts. Still though, Iowa is horrible--absolutely horrible--on the defensive end, and we've gotten to the point (which we often seem to later in the season) where even Iowa's sterling offense often doesn't make up for giving up wide open shots to opponents at every level. Certainly, Iowa is a scary team to face--when Luka Garza, Joe Weiskamp, Jordan Bohannon, etc., all fine to fantastic offensive players, are hot at the same time, Iowa can outscore virtually anyone--and thus with the right draw, Iowa can go a ways in the tournament. That said, Iowa is also a prime candidate for early exit in your NCAA tournament pool. One more note--this will not be a popular opinion, but if I was given a vote (and I never will be), Garza is not my POY--you can't be as ridiculously bad as Garza is on the defensive end and be the POY in a sport where you have to play both ends (my older daughter thinks Alex Ovechkin is an exception to this rule, but she's a Caps fan).
Maryland--No bigs, no point guard, erratic outside shooting equals difficulty scoring. Yet Maryland has some big time wins (at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota (the Gophers' only home loss to date) and Purdue, because against everyone except Michigan, Maryland really defends with its group of interchangeable wings. Despite its overall 10-9 record, Maryland remains a bubble team because of its wins and the fact that after tonight's OSU game, the tough part of Maryland's schedule is in the rear view mirror--the last 7 games include 2 with Nebraska, at Northwestern, MSU Minnesota and PSU, all at home, and at Rutgers. Maryland may be too inconsistent to put together a string of wins, but it's certainly possible. And with a NET ranking currently standing at 39, some consistency would likely land the Terps on the right side of the bubble.
Michigan--Obviously, nothing new.
Michigan State--See Maryland for a synopsis. Unlike Maryland though, MSU does not: (a) have good to great wins; (b) defend at quite the same level as the Terps, or (c) have the easy part of its schedule coming up. There are some highly touted players on this team (Henry, Watts, Houser, Langford, etc.), but none are playing well at all. If MSU suddenly turns things around in a big way, there might barely be enough time left. However, for a team which has exactly one non-Nebraska Big Ten win thus far, and not a single game left where it is currently favored to win, the chances of this appear to be very slim.
Minnesota--The opposite of Maryland and Michigan State--point guard and center are the strengths, with wings who have been unproductive andIt's a inefficient. Minnesota hasn't won on the road, and generally hasn't been even competitve there; when they finally were against Rutgers this past Wednesday, the Gophers had an epic meltdown late in the game. Watching Minnesota when things are going bad is like watching a snowball running downhill--the wings (especially Gabe Kalscheur, Both Gach and Jamal Mashburn, Jr.) fire up bricks, point guard Markus Carr decides to talke the entire offensive burden on himself and hoist up horrific shots, big Liam Robins lets himself be taken out of the game, and very bad things happen. And Carr's defensive effort varies by game, from intense when he played Michigan in Minneapolis to indifferent the last few outings. When Minnesota is clicking, i.e., when the wings give them something offensively, Robbins stays out of foul trouble, and Carr decides not to play hero ball every time down the floor, this can be a very dangerous team. The fairly easy remaining schedule gives the Gophers a chance to put themselves in good shape...or prove that the early season wins against Iowa, OSU and Michigan were outliers. With a current NET ranking at 55, Minnesota needs it to be the former.
Nebraska--No continuity, not a ton of talent and little team chemistry, and COVID issues to boot--this is a year for Nebraska to just finish, and hope that a good recruiting year and some experience playing together leads to better things next season. If Nebraska wins a BT game this year, it will be a surprise; two or more would be a shock.
Northwestern--Remember when Northwestern was 3-0 in the BT with wins over traditional conference blue bloods MSU, IU and OSU? That was a mirage, brought on in part by the now discredited thought that MSU was going to be good. At the time, Northwestern looked like a team with shooters all over the court; now, with its guard play at an untenable level, thus impacting the open looks for guys like Miller Kopp and Pete Nance, nothing is going well on either end of the court. Boo Buie, for example, score 55 points in Northwestern's first 3 BT games, and had an average efficiency ranking in those games of 125.8 (100 is average); since that point, Buie has 59 total points in the last 9 games combined, with an average efficiency of 65.9. The Cats have at least been competitive in their last 3 games (at PSU, Rutgers and at Purdue), so there's that. However, barring something unexpected, Northwestern is going to be playing on the first day of the Big Ten tournament. Virtually everyone is slated to be back next season, and the recruiting class is pretty good, so maybe there's a foundation for what is, right now, a very young team.
Ohio State--A really tough team, one which has overcome issues with lack of size. Part of this is that E.J. Liddell is terrific, and Kyle Young is extremely physical and crafty around the basket. Part is that OSU has had multiple players step up from game to game, getting contributions from deep on the roster than anyone else in the conference. And part of it is that Chris Holtman has done a great job melding a team into one which exceeds the talets of its individual players. I still don't know what OSU will do in crunch time against great teams--there aren't perimeter guys who can get theirs, nor a big guy who can just overpower the opposition, so the ceiling may be limited to some extent. That said, the Buckeyes are playing very close to that ceiling.
Penn State--Penn Sate, like many of the other teams below the top echelon of the conference, has roster holes and erratic play. The Lions compound this by an offensive approach from the pre-analytics era--lots of long, contested 2s. To their credit though, Jim Ferry's crew plays VERY HARD, get a lot of little things done, and have thus remained very competitive. Seth Lundy, PSU's 6'6" combo forward, who has been erratic, is a key on offense, as is a continuation of the surprisingly good play of big John Harrar. PSU is another team with a schedule made for catching up on the win/loss record down the stretch, and if it can do so, PSU's high computer rankings (currently 28 on NET) should putthe Lions on the right side of the bubble.
Purdue--It is a true complement to Matt Painter that this team is an upper tier Big Ten team in a conference this tough. The Boilers are very young, with 4 freshman in the rotation, have only one all-conference type in Tevion Williams, a guy who shares time at center because he can't play together with promising freshman Zach Edey, and only 2 reliable perimeter threats in Sasha Stefanovic (who missed several games) and freshman Brandon Newman. Purdue has Painter though, and he has done a fantastic job. This is a program on the rise in the future, what with a very young team and a needed top 50 guy at a position of need (power forward) coming in. This year, it is likely to be dancing.
Rutgers-- In a league with a lot of teams going hot and cold, no team has exemplified the trend more than Rutgers, which started the season with 6 wins, then lost 6 of its next 7, and then, on the verge of implosion, rallied to win its last 4 straight. It's usually how the offense plays which tells the tale, as defensively, Rutgers is great in several categories including blocks and turnovers forced. Offensively though, Rutgers has stretches where it couldn't throw a ball in the water from the beach, and that includes even freebies, where the Knights shoot an abysmal 60.1% as a team, good for 344th in the nation. Ron Harper, Jr is the scorer, Geo Baker the big shot guy, and Jacob Young the distributor, but the key to Rutgers is center Myles Johnson, who is an elite defender and offensive rebounder, an essential component on a team which misses as often as does Rutgers. Johnson is very susceptible to foul trouble, and when he's not in, Rutgers is very vulnerable.
Wisconsin--The Badgers have not played well at all since being pounded in Ann Arbor. Nate Reuvers has regressed, and is now coming off the bench. Brad Davison has also regressed, shooting a woeful 24% from inside the arc, and D'Mitrik Trice has seemed to feel the lack of help. For once, Wisconsin actually has the most difficult schedule among the Big ten's upper tier teams, with Iowa twice, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue left. Last year, Wisconsin reeled off 8 in a row to end the season and tie for the BT championship. A similar run this season seems extremely unlikely under any circumstances--unless the Badgers run off a string of 40+% games from3 like last year, it seems impossible.
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